The Last Gasp {y CROWN PUBLISHERS, INC. NEW YORK Excerpts from the following works have been reprinted with the permissin of their publishers: The Cosing Circe: Nature, Man and Technoogy by Barry Commoner. Copyright © 1971 by Barry Commoner. Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.Random House, Inc. New York. Future Shock by Alvin Toffler. Copyright © 1970 by Alvin Toffler. Random House, Inc. New York. Limits to Growth: A Report for the Cub oRome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind by Donella H. Meadows et al. Copyright © 1974 by Universe Publishers, Inc. Pollute and Be Damned by Arthur Bourne. Copyright © 1972 by Arthur Bourne. J. M. Dent and Sons Ltd. London. Copyright © 1983 by TflEVOfl HOYLE All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmtted in any form or by any means, eectronic or mechanica, incuding photocopying, recording, or by any inormation storage and retrieva system, without permission in writing from the pubisher. Published by Crown Publishers, Inc., One Park Avenue, New York, New York 10016 and simutaneously in Canada by Genera] Publishing Company Limited Manuactured in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging n Publication Dta Hoyle, Trevor. The last gasp. 1. Tite. PS3558.0955L3 1983 813'.54 83-2073 SBN 0-517-55084-9 Book design by Camila Fiiancia 10 987654321 First Edition For David and Sue Richards What riends are for Acknowledgments I should like to thank the following people and organizations for their invaluable advice and assistance in the research for this book: Dr. Leslie F. Musk and Dr. David Tout, Geography Department, University of Manchester; Dr. E. Bellinger, Pollution Research Unit, University of Manchester; Dr. F. W. Ratcliffe, librarian and director of the John Rylands University Library of Manchester. Special thanks to Dr. Phillip Williamson, then of the Wellcomt Marine Laboratory, Robin Hood's Bay, Yorkshire, for hours of fruitful and enlightening discussion. The following publications and research papers were extremely useful: Climate Monitor, issued by the Centre for Climatic Research, University of East Anglia; Word Meteoroogical Organisation Buetin; Yearbook of the Scripps Institution o Oceanography, San Diego, California; "National Climate Program" in Oceanus, vol. 21, no. 4; "Continuous Plankton Records: Changes in the Composition and Abundance of the Phytoplankton of the North-Eastern Atlantic Ocean and North Sea, 1958-1974" by P. C. Reid of the Institute for Marine Environmental Research, Plymouth, in Marine Biology. Of many other useful sources of information, I should like to acknowledge the following: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S.; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, U.S.; P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Academy of Sciences of USSR, Moscow; Scottish Marine Biological Association, Argyll, Scotland; Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Huntingdon, U.K.; Natural Environmental Research Council, Swindon, U.K.; Marine Biological Association of U.K.; World Meteorological Organization (an agency of the UN); World Climate Research Program (joint venture of the WMO and the International Council of Scientific Unions); World Climate Conference held in vii Geneva, 1979; Global Weather Experiment; POLYMODE: the MidOcean Dynamics Experiment, U.S. and USSR; NORPAX: the North Pacific Experiment; CLIMAP: Climate and Long-Range Investigation Mapping and Prediction; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Coorado; World Oceanographic Data Center, Washington, D.C.; U.S. Council on Environmental Quality; Interagency Coordinating Committee of Atmospheric Sciences, U.S.; International Conference on the Environmental Future (Iceland, 1977). As reference sources, I made use of the following: Population, Resources, Environment, Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich (Freeman, 1970); PJanet Earth (Aldus Books, 1975); ourna of Environmental Management; Environmenta Polution; Science; New Scientist; Only One Earth, Barbara Ward and Rene Dubos (Andre Deutsch, 1972); The Cosing Circe, Barry Commoner (Jonathan Cape, 1972); Polute and Be Damned, Arthur Bourne (J. M. Dent, 1972); The Doomsday Book, Gordon Rattray Taylor (Thames & Hudson, 1970); The Ultimate Experimen: Man-Made Evoution, Nicholas Wade (Walker & Company, 1977); Colonies in Space, T. A. Heppenheimer (Stackpole Books, 1977). And finally—last but certainly not least—I should like to record my appreciation of Nick Austin, who five years ago over a bottle of Chivas Regal gently dropped the idea into my mind and waited for something to happen. Al progress is based upon a universa innate desire on the part of every organism to live beyond its income. EDMUND BURKE ... Let us strike the keynote, Coketown, before pursuing our tune. It was a town of red brick, or of brick that would have been red if the smoke and ashes had allowed it; but as matters stood it was a town of unnatural red and back ike the painted face of a savage. It was a town of machinery and fall chimneys, out of which interminable serpents of smoke trailed themselves for ever and ever, and never got uncoiled. It had a black cana in it, and a river that ran purple with il-smeling dye, and vast piles of buidings ful of windows where there was a ratting and a trembling al day long, and where the pistons of the steam engine worked monotonousy up and down like the head of an elephant in a state of melancholy madness. It contained severa large streets all very like one another, and many small streets stil more like one another, inhabited by people equally ike one another, who al went in and out at the same hours, with the same sound upon the same pavements, to do the same work, and to whom every day was the same as yesterday and tomorrow, and every year the counterpart of the last and the next. CHARLES DICKENS Hard Times Half of all the energy consumed by man in the past two thousand years has been consumed in the last one hundred. ALVIN TOFFLER Future Shock If the present growth trends in world population, industrial polution, food production and resources depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this panet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. Limits to Growth The risk from ung cancer due to breathing New York air is about equivaent to the risk of smoking two packs o cigarettes a day. BARRY COMMONER The Closing Circle 1990 I The mystery man arrived just before the five-month antarctic night set in. Two days later and he would never have been found. Like a mole from its burrow, Gavin Chase emerged that morning from the prefabricated bunker eighteen feet belowground. Six years ago the bunker had been on the surface. Now, shored up with buckled iron ribs and creaking timbers, it was gradually sinking deeper and deeper and being crushed in a clamp of ice. Soon it would be necessary to abandon and build anew. It was still dark. The spread of stars was etched into the firmament with hard, diamondlike precision. Above the icebound continent of five million square miles—nearly twice the area of Australia—the insulating troposphere was so shallow, half that at the equator, that the marine biologist felt directly exposed to the vacuous cold of outer space. Cold enough to turn gasoline into jelly and make steel as brittle as porcelain. Chase stepped carefully from the slatted wooden ramp that led below, a bulky figure in outsize red rubber boots, swaddled in waffleweave thermal underwear, navy-issue fatigues, an orange parka, and, protecting his vulnerable hands, gloves inside thick mittens thrust into gauntlets that extended to his elbows. A thin strip, from eyebrows to bridge of nose, was the only bit of him open to the elements. He moved across the packed wind-scoured surface to the weather-instrument tower, eyes probing the darkness. Yesterday the temperature had fallen to 52.3 degrees below zero F. Once it dropped past minus 60 degrees there would be no more scuba diving till next summer. But he hoped there was time for at least one more dive. There were specimens of planktonic algae he wanted to collect, in particular a subspecies known as siiicoflagelates, which abounded beneath the pack ice of the Weddel Sea, here on the western rim of the Antarctic Plateau. Amazing really—that there should be such an abundance of microscopic life teeming below when up here it was as bleak and sterile as the moon. With slow, calculated movements he gripped the metal ladder and hauled his six-foot frame twenty feet up to the first platform. Young and fit as he was, honed to a lean 160 pounds after nearly six months at Halley Bay Station, Chase knew that every calorie of energy had to be budgeted for with a miser's caution. Inactive, the body used up about one hundred watts of power, which went up tenfold with physical activity. The trick was to keep on the go without overtaxing yourself. That way you kept warm, generating your own heat—but there was another trap if you weren't careful. At these extreme latitudes the ygen content was low, the equivalent of living at ten thousand feet n the side of a mountain. With less oxygenated blood reaching the body's tissues any exertion required double the effort and energy expenditure. Too much exertion and you could black out—without warning, as quickly as a light going out—and that would be that. Chase knelt down and brushed away the thick coating of furry frost from the gauges with his cumbersome hands. Windspeed was up to 18 knots, he noted with a frown. Then relaxed slightly and grinned when he saw that the red needle of the temperature gauge was still a few degrees short of sixty. Good. That meant one more day, possibly two, for diving. Nick wouldn't like it, but he'd have to persuade him; he couldn't dive without a backup. Serve the bastard right, he thought with a flash of mordant humor. With only two weeks left to serve at the station, Chase was keen to gather as many marine samples as possible before boarding the C-130 for the 1,850-mile flight across the Pole to the American base at McMurdo Sound, then the 2,400-mile haul to Christchurch, New Zealand. And a week after that he would be home! Wallowing in all the comforts and pleasures of civilization. After all these months of enforced celibacy the young scientist knew quite definitely which pleasure came first. He straightened up and gazed out over the featureless wasteland toward the heart of the polar interior. His breath plumed the air like smoke. On the barely discernible line of the horizon a very faint smudge of the most delicate crimson indicated the advent of the sun. They would see it for a couple of hours today—a flattened reddish ball resting on the rim of their world—and then once more it would be night. Soon it would be night until September. That's how much we depend on you, Chase communed with the rising sun. Without your warmth and light the planet would be sheathed in ice twenty feet thick. Or was it fifty? Not that it mattered, he thought wryly. Ten feet of ice over the surface of the earth would be enough to make the human race as extinct as the dinosaur. Directly below him elongated slivers of deep purple shadow edged out from the weather gantry and radio mast—the "bird's nest" as it was called by everyone on the station. The shadows crept slowly across the smooth humps that were the only visible sign of the warren of living quarters and labs and the thirty-six men beneath. The arc of red tipped the rim of the world. Chase held his breath. It was awesome, no matter how many times you witnessed the miracle. From dingy gray to misty pearl and then to blinding white the landscape was illuminated like a film set. Chase shielded his eyes against the reflected glare. Even though the horizontal rays were weak, the albedo effect of the white blanket of snow and ice threw back every photon of light in a fierce hazy dazzle that seared the eyeballs. Under certain conditions this caused a whiteout: land and sky melting together, with no horizon to align the senses to, all contours and topographical features lost in a blank white dream. Chase watched, marveled, and became alert. Something was moving. Out there on the ice. Hell, no, he was surely mistaken. He was gazing toward the Pole. Nothing could be coming from that direction, from the barren heart of all that emptiness. Impossible! In the next instant he was scrambling down the ladder, rubber boots slithering on the ice-coated rungs. In his haste he forgot about the thinness of the atmosphere, about energy budgets. He hadn't gone more than a dozen yards before his chest was heaving. Sweat ran from his armpits; always a danger signal, because damp clothing lost its insulation properties and you froze in your own perspiration. Steady now, take it easy, he warned himself. Whatever it is that's out there—if anything's out there—it's survived till now. Steadying himself, he sucked in long deep gulps of air. He'd look bloody foolish if he were found dead within fifty feet of the entry ramp. A little over ten minutes later, pacing himself, he came in sight of the sled after skirting an outcrop of sheer glistening ice, thrust upward by the immense pressure. The team of eight dogs was, quite literally, on its last legs. That explained why he hadn't heard them barking. They were too exhausted to do anything except sag in their harness straps and pant weakly. Chase leaned over the sled and with an effort pulled back the stiffened canvas sheet. It cracked like breaking timber. A shapeless mound of ice-encrusted furs concealed the body of a man. His head was sunk deep in a cavity of fur. He was heavily bearded and blackened by the sun. Dark goggles, the old-fashioned type, with tiny circular lenses, covered the eyesockets. Dead—must be, Chase reckoned and then saw the blistered lips move. That was incredible. The man had come out of nowhere, appeared from a thousand miles of icy wilderness, and incredibly he was alive. The wedge of light sliced through it as if the blackness itself were a tangible substance. Wielding the heavy battery of arc lamps, Chase swam deeper. He was the searcher, Nick the collector. Above them the lid of ice, forty feet thick, sealed them in, with just one tiny aperture between them and a freezing watery tomb. No wonder Nick had grumbled and cursed. "For Chist's sake, are ou a masochist or what, Gav? No, I get it, a bloody sadist, that's what you are. Nick Power thinks the tour's over, no more work to be done, so I'll show the bastard. Make him suffer." Except that Chase didn't think of it as suffering. He rathe enjoyed it, a matter of fact. He saw himself suspended, a tiny fragment of warm lfe, on top of the world (top, bottom—in an astronomical context they were interchangeable), with everyone and everything else beneath him. All the continents and oceans and cities and the whole of mankind way down there. It was a wonderful feeling; it quickened his pulse just imagining it. At 130 feet he swung the battery of lamps around. Nick hadn't a clue what to catch; he merely followed the wedge of light and swooped when Chase gave the signal. It could look a bit ridiculous, swooping at nothing, and Chase grinned behind the full-face mask at Nick's apparently pointless pantomime. They were after microscopic plants and it was good luck more than judgment if they happened to snare the ones Chase wanted. He chose what seemed a likely spot, just above the ocean floor, and hoped tor the best. Nick turned toward him, his faceplate flashing like a golden coin in the milky light. The net trailed after him, a long swirling cocoon. He'd closed the neck, Chase saw, and was gesturing upward. He'd had enough. Probably the cold was starting to seep through his insulated suit. Chase could feel a creeping numbness in his own feet. If you ignored it—it wasn't painful—you felt fine until you got back to the surface and began to thaw out. Then you were racked with the most excruciating agony and you might find all your toes had dropped off. So any kind of pain was preferable to a lack of sensation, especially in the extremities. Chase gave a thumbs-up in the cone of light, indicating they were done. Nick kept on gesturing, his movements sluggish, dreamlike. What was the clown playing at? Chase kicked with his flippered feet and swam nearer. Nick's eyes bulged at him through the faceplate. Again he pointed, but this time Chase realized that it was a frantic gesture over his shoulder toward his double cylinders. Something the matter with his air supply. It was difficult, trying to maneuver the awkward battery of lights with one hand while he spun Nick around with the other. Around them the blackness was total, just a speck of light in countless cubic feet of freezing water. The first cylinder was empty; its gauge registered zero. The second cylinder should have cut in automatically, but hadn't, and Chase saw why. The exposed brass feed pipe was flecked with ice. The valve had frozen, and Nick was eking out his existence on what little remained in the first tank. At 130 feet that meant an ascent lasting several minutes— much too long for Nick to survive. And Chase couldn't feed him from his own mouthpiece. Air supply and mask were an integral unit, and to remove your mask in these waters meant the cold would strike needles into your skull and kill you with the shock. For several seconds Chase's mind was locked in paralysis. Nick had only a few gasps of air left. Even if he managed to get him to the surface alive, the lack of oxygen would cause irreparable brain damage, turn him into a human cabbage. The Antarctic was an implacable enemy. Relax your guard for even one instant and it would exact the full penalty. Negligence was death. Heat. You fought cold with heat. The only source available was the battery of lamps. The marine biologist grasped Nick by the shoulder, using the leverage to force the cowled arc light against the brass feed pipe. There had to be direct contact, otherwise the water would dissipate what little heat there was. Together they floated in inky darkness. The muted thump and gurgle of Chase's air supply was the only sound. His companion had ceased to move and Chase found himself praying to a God in whom he didn't believe. This was no longer the top of the world, but the bottom, with the weight of the planet pressing down on them. Below them a thick slab of ice, beyond that the tenuous troposphere, and then bottomless space. Wake up, wake up, he told himself savagely. He was starting to hallucinate, lose orientation. The cold was getting to him. If he didn't concentrate he might start swimming toward the seabed, thinking it was the surface. Nick's arm twitched under his gloved hand. His head turned, the faceplate misty with expired water vapor. For the second time in as many days Chase thought he had a dead man on his hands, and both times, thank God, he had been wrong. The valve, at last, was free. The ice on the feed pipe had melted, Chase saw with relief, and the gauge was registering again. A wavering chain of silver bubbles rose from Nick's exhaust release and surged upward. Nick raised his arm and nodded weakly. He still had hold of the net, clamped in an instinctive grip. Holding the lamps above his head, Chase rose slowly, his other hand gripping Nick's shoulder harness ti"htlv. In minutes the two men were in sight of the circle of green lights that marked the entry point through the ice and then gratefully hauling themselves onto the diving platform. Wooden steps led upward, connecting with a plywood-lined corridor that ran from the edge of the Weddell Sea onto the Filchner Ice Shelf—the actual Antarctic Plateau. There the corridor led directly into the basement of the station, though it took the two men over fifteen minutes to reach it. Chase had wanted to leave their scuba sets on the platform to be collected later, but Nick insisted he could manage. He said dourly, "I hope those bloody specimens were worth getting. Are you sure we didn't come up with an empty net?" Chase dumped his tanks on the rack and lifted the stainless-steel lid ,j! the collecting vessel, in which the net sloshed in six inches of seawater. "Could be. Never be sure until we get it into the lab and take a look through the microscope." "What?" Nick Power yelped. His face was circled with a fine red mark where the lip of the rubber hood had clung. It seemed even more incongruous because surrounding it was a frizzy mop of reddish hair and a straggly reddish beard, which for a reason Chase could never understand was neatly razor-trimmed in a crescent below the mouth while left to flourish unchecked elsewhere. An art student's beard; odd, since Nick was a glaciologist. "Do you mean I might have killed myself for nothing? Died in the cause of science and have only two pints of seawater to show for it? Jesus bloody Norah." "A noble cause nevertheless," Chase intoned solemnly, filling the galvanized tub with steaming hot water. "And you wouldn't have been forgotten, I'd have seen to that. Those two pints of seawater would have been your memorial." "You're all heart, Gav." Nick stripped off his rubber suit down to a pair of briefs with a saucy motto on the crotch. His pale skin was tattooed with blue patches from the cold. Chase helped him into the tub. "The most selfless man I know," Nick mumbled on, teeth chattering. "Think nothing of sacrificing a friend for a Guggenheim Fellowshp. Allow me the privilege of accompanying you on your next suicide mission." "Shut up and sit down," Chase said. He filled another tub, stripped off his own suit, and sank into it with a blissful sigh. At first he felt nothing, and then came slowly the luxurious tingle of returning life through his frozen limbs. They'd been under the ice for nearly an hour, which at these temperatures was the absolute limit before damage was done to the body's tissues. His last dive, no question of that. Very nearly Nick's last dive, period. He felt a pang of guilt, mingled with thankful relief. Down there it was black, ball-freezing, and dangerous. They were both well out of it, thank Christ, alive and with all extremities intact. He cradled his privates in the hot soapy water and thought of Angie. The warmth began to seep through him, making him pleasantly drowsy. Only a few days more and then homeward bound, he dreamed, slipping into his favorite reverie. Ange's blond hair, like pale seaweed. Ange's lithe body and small upstanding breasts. Ange's smooth skin, firm buttocks, and long legs. He'd always had a fatal weakness for leggy blondes with cut-glass accents. Coming from the back streets of Bolton in Lancashire, he wondered whether it wasn't some murky atavistic impulse, the caveman instinct to possess, control, have power over something fragile, inviolate. It reminded him of the childhood thrill of planting his feet across a field of virgin snow, despoiling the serene white canopy. And why him? Perhaps she fancied a bit of rough. The ragged-arsed kid who'd elevated himself above his proper station to that of professional research scientist via a B.A. in oceanography and marine sciences at Churchill College, Cambridge, a master's in the advanced course in ecology at Durham University, and a Ph.D. on the feeding ecology and energetics of intertidal invertebrates at the Stazione Zoologica, Naples. If he hadn't known the curriculum vitae was his own, it would have impressed him. Thinking about Angie wasn't such a good idea. It inevitably started him off on a fantasy seduction that tantalized his libido without satisfying it; better to postpone that line of thought until reality was made flesh. "How's the Creature from the Black Lagoon?" he called out. Nick wafted his hand through the steam. "I've just come to the conclusion that you're a nutcase. The original mad scientist." "How's that?" Chase inquired pleasantly, leaning back, eyes closed. The delicious warmth had penetrated right through him. "Why make it hard on yourself and difficult for the rest of us? If Banting doesn't give a damn—and he doesn't, we know that—why should you?" "What do you mean, difficult?" "By setting a bad example," Nick clarified in a pained voice. "The tour's nearly over. You're off home soon and I've only got a month to do. Haven't you done enough work?" "There were some specimens I needed, and it was my last opportunity. All right for you—you can get samples any time you want." Nick Power's work as a glaciologist involved extracting ice cores from a mile and a third beneath the polar cap to investigate their 'I'evui n3== + HO ± 2HCC>3 Nick tugged at his beard. "What's that?" he frowned. "Something to do with the carbon cycle?" "It's the chemical interaction that takes place when carbon dioxide is dissolved in seawater," Chase said. "It reacts with bicarbonate and carbonate ions, which allows more calcium carbonate from the sediments to dissolve." "So what?" Chase studied the equation, still at a loss. "Search me." He looked up at the sound of voices in the corridor. He thought it prudent to slip the piece of paper into his pocket, without quite knowing why. Quickly he replaced the clipboard on its hook at the foot of the bed, then straightened up as Professor Banting entered the sick bay followed by Grigson. Nick leaned against the plywood wall, apparently unconcerned. Professor Banting's head shone like a polished green egg in the dim light. His close-set eyes in the narrow skull resembled suspicious black buttons. "Don't you know this man is very ill and shouldn't be disturbed?" "What's wrong with him?" asked Nick, unintimidated. "His back is broken," Grigson stated without emotion; it was a medical fact. He went over and checked the Russian's pulse. Banting pointedly stood aside. "Please leave at once. You shouldn't be here in the first place." "What's going to happen to him?" Chase wanted to know. Banting breathed out slowly, controlling his annoyance. "They're sending a Hercules from McMurdo Sound. So now you know. All right?" "The Americans?" Chase said. "Why inform them?" "Because they have the facilities and we haven't," said Banting shortly. Professor Ivor Banting was project leader at the station and head of the British Section Antarctic Research Program. More administrator than serious scientist, he commanded little respect from the British contingent. He seemed to be more interested in keeping an eye on the stores' inventory than in conducting research experiments and collecting important data. Chase thought him a typical careerist pettyminded bureaucrat, but just as long as Banting kept out of his way and didn't interfere he was prepared to tolerate the man. Trevor rtoye Banting cleared his throat, as he might have done before commencing to lecture to a group of rather obtuse students. "There's also the matter of security, which I doubt would have occurred to you. The Americans want to know what he was doing here." "They don't think he's a spy." Chase said incredulously, not sure whether he ought to laugh or not. "We find a man with a broken back on the ice, two thousand miles from nowhere, and the Americans regard him as a security risk!" But Professor Banting was clearly not in the mood to debate the point. He said crisply, "As head of the station, Dr. Chase, this is my responsibility. And my decision. The Americans are the right people to deal with it." He stuck both hands into the pockets of his shapeless t eed jacket in the pose of someone whose patience was rapidly "\ aporating. "Now, if you and Dr. Power would be so good as to leave." At the door Chase paused and glanced back at the figure on the bed, the black beard enclosing the soundlessly miming lips. Even now a reflex part of his brain was striving to communicate . . . what? What could be so vitally important to him? A simple chemical equation? Chase curled his hand around the piece of paper in his pocket. "1 just hope you know what you're doing, Professor." His jaw hardened, "This man is gravely ill. Moving him could be a fatal mistake." "Quite so." Banting turned his back. "But if so it will be mine and not yours, Dr. Chase." Wearing only ragged shorts and a pair of canvas shoes with holes in them, Theo Detrick sat in the stern of a small wooden rowboat in the middle of a placid lagoon, surrounded by a bracelet of dazzling pink coral. He was a shortish, robust man with a boxer's torso and shoulders burned a deep mahogany, and whereas many men his age had thickened and grown slothful, Theo kept to a strict regimen: The discipline of his scientific calling extended into every area of his hermetic life. Beneath a spiky crew cut of snow-white hair his face was grizzled and etched with lines, his eyes of transparent blue screwed up against the brilliant mirror of the lagoon. Canton Island is the tiniest of a loosely scattered group, the Phoenix Islands, fractionally below the equator, which seem no more than flyblown specks in the vast blue expanse of the tropical Pacific. For Theo Detrick, Canton Island was important precisely because of its location. Nearly twenty years before, at the age of forty, he had come to the island and stayed here, its sole inhabitant. What had begun as a routine research project in marine biology, sponsored by a two-year Scnpps Fellowship, had turned into his life work. Behind the boat trailed a surface-skimming net. Its fine silk mesh had captured a kind of greenish goo, which he was careful not to me IBI usp disturb as he hauled the net over the stern. Later, in his laboratory in the single-story clapboard house, Theo would cut the silk into tencentimeter squares and examine each one patiently and painstakingly under the microscope. But even with the naked eye the evidence was plain enough—to his practiced eye at any rate. The phytoplankton index was in decline. It was a trend that had been noted in all the oceans of the world, but never plotted so carefully, so thoroughly, over such a long period of time. The scientist shielded his eyes and looked beyond the coral reef to the open sea, a thousand glittering facets in the unbroken arc of blue. It was out there, in the narrow belt along the equator, that the upwelling of colder water brought with it a rich soup of microorganisms from the ocean depths. These were the countless billions of minute unicellular planktonic algae that formed the staple diet of most fish. Important too in that a significant proportion of the world's constantly replenished oxygen supply came from these tiny freefloating plants. Like all green plants they absorbed the energy of the sun and by means of photosynthesis converted water into its constituent parts of hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen they used to produce carbohydrates for their own needs, dumping the oxygen as a waste product into the atmosphere. But what was "waste" to the plants was vital to all animal life on the planet. There wasn't any man living who knew as much about this microscopic form of marine life as he did. His book on the subject, nine years in the writing and published a decade ago, was now regarded as the standard text. From the royalties and the grant he still received from Scripps, he was able to continue his research—though he guessed that at the institute he existed merely as an entry on the accounts department balance sheet. "Old Theo? Thought he was dead." He visited the mainland once, at the most twice, a year, so he couldn't blame them. His wife had died fourteen years ago. His daughter, Cheryl, herself a postgraduate at the institute, must have felt she was corresponding with a distant relative—a stranger even—when they exchanged their brief, polite letters. He rowed back to the jetty, the oars smooth in his leathery palms. The years of isolation had bred in him a fear and distrust of the outside world. By choice he would have preferred to be left alone on his island, He wanted nothing more than to work at what he knew best, at the subject to which he had devoted the greater part of his working life. But—the question—what good was that work, that research, all that dedication, if not used for the benefit of mankind? He had a duty not only to himself. He was a forgotten man, wouldn't have had it any other way, but the time had come to consider other things. For the past two years, he realized, he had tried to deny the truth. Yet daily he saw the truth, and it was inescapable. It was building up, sheet after written sheet, graph after graph, in the mass of notes lying between mildewed oreen covers on his workbench. He couldn't afford to ignore it any longer. Who would pay heed to a forgotten man? Theo wondered, holding the skimming net in one hand while he pulled himself up with the other. Especially the apocalyptic warning of a lone scientist, long vanished from civilization? A crank? Deranged? Old Theo? Thought he vas dead. He went up the beaten path to the house, knowing what had to be done. Like a fire-and-brimstone prophet of ancient times, he was about to preach death and destruction. His sermon concerned nothing less than the end of the world. Nick Power lounged back in the canvas chair, his calf-length combat boots with the thick-ridged soles propped on the corner of the trestle table. "The guy's off his rocker, Gav, we both know that." "No, we don't. Feverish, yes, and in pain, probably drugged up to the eyebals, but he was definitely trying to tell us something." "Okay," Nick agreed charitably. "What, for instance?" "I don't know," Chase said. "Because it didn't mean anything. An elementary equation that can be found in any third-year chemistry textbook. He was deluded, babbling nonsense. Something he'd learned as a peasant back in Vladivostok." Chase gazed thoughtfully across the small cluttered messroom with its half-dozen late diners idling over coffee. The others had retired to the rec room along the corridor to play cards or chess, or have a game of table tennis on the battered table supported by packing cases. Some would be straining to hear whatever English-language broadcast they could pick up on shortwave—if the ionospheric storms didn't give total radio blackout, likely with the approaching winter. It was the comfortable hour of the evening, the station battened down against the searing wind and cold and dark. Primeval man seeking the shelter of the cave, the warmth of companionship in a hostile environment. "When are they transferring him to McMurdo?" asked Nick, hands behind his head. 'Tomorrow. The Hercules is due in at fourteen hundred hours." Nick perked p. "Wowie! If Doug Thomas is flying her we could have a fresh supply of Red. That's made my day," he said happily. "I won't be around to smoke it with you," Chase reminded him. "You n blast off into outer space all on your own." Nick laughed. "The next POGO in orbit will be me." Polar-Orbiting Geophysical satellites passed directly overhead every hour and a half, transmitting photographs of the weather situation and data on magnetic disturbances in the upper atmosphere. A satellite was being launched every three days, and at the present time there were more than three thousand spacecraft in orbit. Three quarters of all expenditure on space development was military—China, India, and, more recently, Chile adding to the clutter in outer space. Chase sipped the last of his lukewarm coffee. "What section of the core are you working on?" he asked Nick. "Oh, pretty recent. About five hundred B.C." "It always amazes me how you can date it so accurately." "Well, it's really an estimate, give or take two or three hundred years. But in the total span of fifty thousand years, what's a couple of centuries between friends?" "Any surprises?" "No, not anymore. I came across a dark band the other day, which is probably the residue of volcanic ash. We dated it by carbon fourteen at about two and a half thousand years, so there must have been a huge eruption about that time." "And the ash got this far?" Chase said curiously. "Most airborne pollution does," Nick told him. "We can trace contamination of the atmosphere caused by the early Industrial Revolution. There's a marked darkening of the ice core from about two hundred and fifty years ago. Every year ten to twenty inches of snow falls on Antarctica, which with the accumulated pressure gets squeezed down into four to eight inches of pure ice. Trapped in it is a permanent record of the climate at any given moment, plus prevailing conditions in the atmosphere, space dust, and so on. We've even detected traces of leaded petroleum." Nick gave a bark of a laugh and shook his head, bemused. "Here am I, shut away in this bloody ice-hole on the arse-end of the globe, studying the effects of the Los Angeles freeway system." Chase said, "And it's supposed to be the cleanest, purest air anywhere in the world down here." He locked his fingers together and rested his chin on them. In the poor light his hair had a blue-black sheen, and the whites of his eyes stood out beneath the dark bar of his eyebrows. Someone had once described his looks as "satyric," which had flattered him until he looked up the precise meaning and found that it meant a Greek wood-demon with a tail and long pointed ears. "I wonder if he is a scientist." "Possible." "What field?" "Professor Boris reading Pornography." "Highly amusing." "Contact Mirnyy Station and ask if anyone's missing." "Are you serious?" "That's one way to find out." Chase gnawed his lip. "I reckon not." He looked at Nick. "I mean, what if he was trying to get away from them? He'd hardly thank me for blowing the gaff." "What the hell, I don't see that it matters. He'll be in the tender loving rare of the Yanks soon. Let them worry about his pedigree." Nick swung his boots down, stood up, and flexed his shoulders. "Let's go to the rec room. It's Donna Summer in cabaret tonight." They went in single file along the narrow wooden corridor, which was lined with silver-clad pipes and lit by caged bulbs. Faintly they could hear the wind howling, twenty feet above them. On the surface it was 90 degrees below, with a windspeed of 62 knots. Chase smiled as he recalled an expression of his mother's. "Not fit to turn a dog out," she'd say when the wind and rain swirled around their little terraced hiiuse in Bolton. He missed her, found himself remembering silly i nconsequential things about her with each passing year, like sediment building up. His father, Cyril, was still alive, retired from his job with British Rail, now living with his sister Emily, Chase's Auntie Em, in Little Lever. It all seemed to belong to another century. A lost age. His boyhood self had vanished into the dead past, never to return. Was this what it was like to grow old, to experience this poignant pain? How did old people stand it? The weight of memory must cripple. Nick went to the bar, a wooden plank resting on two crates, and brought back two cans of Newcastle brown ale. Settled in a sagging armchair, Chase accepted one, peeled back the tab, and took a mouthful. A group in the corner was watching a VTR of an old Woody Alien film; Woody was walking down the street with Mariel Hemingway; that would make it Manhattan, Chase thought. He took another swig of beer and fished out the crumpled piece of paper and smoothed it flat on his knee with one hand. He continued to sip his drink while he studied it. What had he missed? This simple equation must mean something. The fact that it was so simple disturbed him most, in fact. With little else to divert him, Nick was willing to listen. Really, Chase supposed, he wanted to talk to clarify his own thoughts, using Nick as a sounding board. "The absorption of carbon dioxide in seawater is a commonplace chemical interaction. They first measured it early in the century by shaking a sample of seawater in a closed jar with a given amount of air. Later they used a paddle-wheel device, and nowadays they keep a continuous record of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide—that's pCO—over huge tracts of ocean by using an infrared analyzer. The normal thing is to obtain high values in equatorial regions, while north and south of the fifty-degree latitudes, toward the poles, the values for pCO are low. The reason for that is—" Because gases are less soluble in warm water than in cold." "Right. So, what you get is an outgassing of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere near the equator—because the warmer water can't hold it—and a corresponding sink for carbon dioxide at higher latitudes. This keeps everything nicely balanced. In fact the oceans are an extremely efficient exchange machine, maintaining a constant level of atmospheric CO of about 0.03 percent. That's been the case for thousands, millions of years." "What about the increase in carbon dioxide?" Nick said. "We're all going to fry in the greenhouse, aren't we?" "We've known about that since the thirties," Chase said, nodding. "It was a British engineer, G. S. Callendar, who published some calculations in the Journa of the Roya Meteoroogica Society that showed that in the fifty years up to 1936, man's industrial activities had added one hundred fifty billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Since then, of course, industrial expansion has zoomed off the graph, so that now it's estimated that over twenty billion tons are released into the atmosphere each year. The real point isn't the actual amount—it's still very small compared to the huge fluxes of gases that take place in the forests and the oceans—but how would a carefully balanced ecosystem cope with all this extra CO floating around?" "And what's the answer, mastermind?" "Nobody yet knows. We do know that since about 1850 there's been a ten to fifteen percent increase in carbon dioxide in the air, which is where you get your greenhouse effect from. Most people don't understand that our atmosphere is heated from below, by radiated heat from the earth's surface. The sun's rays come through, heat us up, and then because of the added carbon dioxide and water vapor can't get out again. The heat gets trapped; ergo, we all turn into tomatoes." "Wonderful." Nick raised his can. "I'll drink to that." Chase reached out and pressed his arm. "Before you do, my junkie friend, answer this: Where has all the extra carbon dioxide gone to?" Nick blinked. "Why, don't they know?" He seemed mildly interested at last. "Nope, We produce an extra twenty billion tons a year—probably nearer thirty—and less than fifty percent of that increase has been detected in the atmosphere. You could win the Nobel by answering that." "Why don't you try? You're the marine biologist." "But not an atmospheric physicist," Chase pointed out sensibly. He looked down at the piece of creased paper on his knee, wondering if the Russian had found the answer to that puzzle. Was the extra COz being absorbed into the polar oceans? They were the usual CO sinks— Then it struck him with a small chilling shock. Something he'd only this moment realized. Fo of course the absolutely crucial question was how long could the oceans keep on absorbing the extra carbon dioxide that year by year was increasing due to man's industrial activities? Surely there must come a time when the oceans reached saturation point. What then? How would that affect the complex interweaving of atmosphere, oceans, and landmass and the life-forms that depended on them? Watching him, Nick said, "For God's sake, you look like somebody who's lost a quid and found a rusty nail. I've told you, Gav, stop fretting over it. It isn't your problem." "Perhaps it is my problem," Chase said quietly. "You're too damn serious for your own good." "Yours too." "Mine?" Nick snorted. "Let me tell you what my only problem is_whether or not Doug Thomas is on that Hercules tomorrow with a little plastic bag." "What the hell does Banting think he's playing at?" Chase said, suddenly angry. "I wouldn't put him in charge of a piss-up in a brewery." Nick tutted. "I do wish you wouldn't employ these vulgar northern expressions. They lower the tone of this establishment." He gazed around with feigned rapture at the cramped, muggy room with its decrepit furniture and makeshift bar and the motley collection of scientists, most of them bearded and unkempt. It had all the charm of an East End flophouse. "Well, thank God I'm leaving soon," Chase said with genuine feeling. "Back to sanity and civilization." "And sex," said Nick with such lugubrious envy that Chase couldn't help bursting out laughing. The four-engined ski-shod C-130 landed the next afternoon right on schedule, taking advantage of the paltry rays cast by a centimeter of sun peeping reluctantly over the horizon. It was a clear calm day with the wind down to 15 knots, the sky a magnificent deep magenta, and everyone not engaged with some pressing duty was on the surface to greet the aircraft. Any diversion brought a welcome break in routine. With typical thoroughness the Americans had sent a three-man medical team equipped with a special stretcher onto which the injured man was carefully placed, made comfortable, and strapped down. Chase had to admit grudgingly that he was receiving the best possible care and attention. He stood with Nick Power and several others watching the stretcher being taken on board through the rear drop-hatch. Professor Banting was a little way off with the American in charge of the operation, a young executive officer named Lloyd Madden, who had the alert, eagle-eyed look of a military automaton. Probably brushed his teeth the regulation number of strokes, Chase conjectured sourly, prepared to find fault at the least excuse. When the stretcher had disappeared into the hold of the Hercules, Chase left the group he was with and wandered across. Banting paused in midsentence and gave him a fisheyed stare. Chase ignored it and stuck out his mittened hand. "Lieutenant? I'm Gavin Chase." "Yes—Dr. Chase. You're the one who found him on the ice, so Professor Banting informs me." Soft voice, hard eyes. "That's right. I thought he'd pissed on his chips." The yound lieutenant frowned, making his hatchet face inside the red parka hood sharper still. "Excuse me?" "Dead. Zilch," Chase said. "Nearly but not quite." Lieutenant Madden raised his smooth chin and brought it down in a swift, decisive nod. Chase sniffed rosewater on the wind. "Right," the lieutenant said, as if having deciphered a garbled message over a faulty land-line. "Who is he? Any idea?" "Not yet. We're hoping to find out." "I'll bet you are," Chase muttered. "I beg your pardon?" Chase wasn't good at placing American accents but this one sounded to him to be cultured New England, very gentle, polite, with hardly any inflection. The gentle politeness, he suspected, was an exceedingly thin veneer. "He's Russian, isn't he?" Lieutenant Madden's eyes shifted in Banting's general direction, then snapped back. "Yes . . . that is, we believe so." It would take a stick of dynamite in every orifice to make the American offer a candid opinion, Chase felt. He said, "You seem very anxious to get hold of him, considering you've no idea who he is." "Anxious? In what way?" "You've sent an aircraft two thousand miles on a special flight. You've come personally to oversee the operation. And you're moving somebody in a serious condition who ought not to be moved at all." "Are you a medical doctor, Dr. Chase? I understood you were a marine biologist." Still the soft voice and gentle tone, but the demarcation between Chase's personal concern and professional standing had been clearly drawn. In other words, butt out, buster. Professor Banting, ever the pedant, closed ranks. "I don't have to remind you, Dr. Chase, that we've had this discussion once before. This matter has nothing whatsoever to do with you. Both Lieutenant Madden and myself are acting on instructions from a higher authority. Please understand that we are simply doing our best to carry them out." Chase said stubbornly, "Even if it kills the patient." [ revui nuy "Dr. Chase, we have a full range of medical facilities at McMurdo. This is for the best, believe me. He'll be well treated and looked after, you have my word." Lieutenant Madden's eyes thawed a little. "I'll even have the medic send you a progress report, how's that?" They must think him stupid. He didn't like being soft-soaped. He stared levelly at the American. "You can't seriously believe he's a security risk, not with a broken back." "This isn't a security matter, Dr. Chase. Leastwise, not military security." Lieutenant Madden lowered his voice as if taking Chase into his confidence. "Between us, we do have some information. We think—we're not sure yet—that he's a member of a Soviet oil prospecting team. We've known for some time that they've been secretly exploring the continent for oil deposits, which as you may know is in (ontravention of the Antarctic Treaty, ratified by sixteen nations. We've no hard evidence to support this, but if we can come up with dates, locations, even some of their findings from an eyewitness, then it might persuade the USSR to pull out before the whole thing blows up into a major international incident. Naturally we don't want the Soviets looking for oil behind our backs, but even less are we seeking an energy confrontation with them on what until now has been neutral ground." "I see." Chase breathed twin plumes of steam into the blisteringly cold air. Banting stamped his feet, looking almost relieved. Lieutenant Madden leaned forward. "I'd appreciate it, Dr. Chase, if this didn't go any further." One intelligent man appealing to the integrity and good sense of another. "You understand." "Absolutely." "Good. Fine." The American's thin lips twitched into something resembling a smile. "I knew I could rely on you." He shook hands with them both, gave a courtesy salute, and walked briskly across the packed snow to the waiting aircraft, whose engines had been kept idling all the time it was on the ground. At 65 degrees below zero F. the fuel in its tanks would have frozen solid. The C-130 taxied into the wind and took off, snow spurting from its skis in a billowing cloud, and in seconds the wing and fuselage lights were bright winking stars against a sky already darkening into the twenty-two-hour night. Chase strolled back with Nick to the entrance ramp, not hearing his lament that Doug Thomas hadn't materialized with the little plastic bag. He was thinking instead of the perfectly sincere expression on the sharp young face of Lt. Lloyd Madden, and of his equally sincere explanation, so confidential, so plausible, so well rehearsed. Three days later, during the changeover at McMurdo Station, Chase learned from a U.S. Army doctor that the Russian had died of a brain hemorrhage on the operating table. He wasn't a bit surprised. The poor bastard had never stood a chance. From a bucket seat forward of the cargo compartment in the smooth silver belly of a C-121 Lockheed Super Constellation, Chase gazed down on the swathes of blue and green that marked the varying depths and different currents in the ocean. They were six hours out from Antarctica, with another four to go before landing at Christchurch. As the aircraft droned on he thought about the dead man, about the piece of paper carefully folded in his diary, about the absorption of carbon dioxide in seawater. But none of it seemed to get him anywhere at all. The research vessel Mevie, two days out from San Diego, steamed at quarter speed through the gently rolling Pacific swell. On a towline one hundred yards astern, the RMT (Rectangular Mid-Water Trawl) scooped surface water to a precisely calibrated depth of two meters, capturing the tiny mesopelagic creatures on their upward migration from the middle depths. Part of the fleet belonging to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the Mevie was on a shakedown cruise for the Marine Biology Research Division, testing a new type of opening-closing release gear. It was operated from the afterdeck on instructions from the monitoring room amidships, and it was Cheryl Derick's and Gordon Mudie's task to watch and report on the trawl's performance. After nearly two hours Cheryl was bored to tears. Not so much with deck duty as with Gordon and the fact that despite nil encouragement, he kept coming on strong. He was tall, skinny, with lank mousy hair that straggled in the breeze, and a gaping loose-lipped grin that reminded her of Pluto's. She thought him unattractive and charmless, while he thought he was making a first-rate impression. Gordon stood by the winch, happy in his ignorance, while Cheryl kept lookout through Zeiss binoculars. Both were graduate students working on a research project for Dr. Margaret Delors, who for ten years or more had been gathering data on the eastern subequatorial Pacific. "Jeez, it's hot," Gordon complained, fanning himself and stating the obvious. "Don't you think so, Sherry?" Cheryl continued watching the RMT. She hated being called Sherry. "Release gear open," she reported into the button mike and received the monitoring room's acknowledgment over the headset. Now another fifteen minutes of Gordon's witty repartee and inane grin. Lord deliver us ... Trevor nyic Moving to the rail she did a slow sweep of the placid ocean. After a moment she removed the headset and dangled it on a metal stanchion. The breeze ruffled her cropped sun-bleached hair. All through university she'd never cut it once, until it reached her waist, and then a friend had advised her that she really ought to style it to suit her height and figure. Which Cheryl interpreted as meaning that girls of medium stature with big tits looked dumpy with waist-length hair. Gordon leaned his bony forearms on the rail and beamed at her, full of bright, sincere, lecherous interest. She might have liked him if he hadn't been so damned obvious. He was probably too honest, she reflected. The guys she fancied were devious bastards, some of them real chauvinist pigs at that, which was a trait she didn't admire in hfirself. But there had to be a physical turn-on, no matter who it was, and Gordon didn't qualify. ''It was your dad, wasn't it, who wrote the book? You're the same Detrick, aren't you?" He was trying manfully to keep the conversation rolling, and Cheryl felt a slight twinge of compassion. "That's me." Cheryl smiled. "The nutty professor's daughter." "Somebody told me he could have been really big at Scripps—even the director if he'd wanted—and he just went off into the blue." Gordon waved his hand. "An island a zillion miles from nowhere. What made him do it?" "He hates people," Cheryl said flippantly. She was tempted to add, "It runs in the family," but didn't. Gordon was a pain in the ass, but she didn't want to make a cheap remark for the sake of it. "Is that right? Does he hate people?" Gordon was giving her his intense moony stare, perhaps hoping he'd discovered a topic of mutual interest. Cheryl shrugged, scanning the ocean through the binoculars. "I don't know. To be honest, I don't know him all that well. I get a Christmas card every February and there isn't much room for a life story between the holly and the snow-covered turtles." "Jeez, Sherry, you're his daughter." "So you keep reminding me, Gordy." Gordon mused on this and then came up unaided with the thought for the day. "They do say that geniuses are very weird people. Not like the rest of us. You know—kinda inhuman, cold, no emotions." "I'm sure he'd be thrilled to hear that." Gordon was immune to irony. "Jeez, I'd love to meet somebody like that, Sherry. I bet he's a fascinating guy. I mean to say, the dedication it takes to go off like that, leaving civilization and all that stuff behind, living purely and simply for your work. That's terrific." Is it?" Cheryl lowered the binoculars and stared at him, her tone sharper than she intended. "It's terrific to live with relatives for most of your life, being shipped around like a package. To be an orphan when r'" of your parents is still alive. That really is terrific, Gordy." li jCXL jap The resentment, the hurt, so long buried, still had a raw edge to it. Especially when dredged up by a casual or thoughtless remark; and Gordon Mudie was an expert in that department. The bass throb of the engines faltered, missed a beat, and then resumed its pounding rhythm. Cheryl felt the vibrations through her rope-soled sandals. The ship seemed to be laboring. She leaned right over, holding the binoculars aside on their leather strap, and peered down into the churning water. Normally it was a cream froth. Now it was red, the color of blood. "Gordon, look at that!" Jeez-uz.'" "What have we hit?" "Must be a seal. Or a shark, maybe." It was neither. Cheryl looked around and discovered that the Mevile was afloat on a red ocean. She looked again over the stern and realized that the vessel was struggling to make headway through a thick spongy mass of minute planktonic organisms, which was giving the sea its reddish hue. There'd been several outbreaks in recent years: vast blooms of the microcellular organism Gymodinium breve had appeared without warning off the coasts of America, India, and Africa. Nobody knew what caused the growth, nor why it suddenly came and went. But the "red tide" was deadly poisonous, to both fish and man. Millions of dead and decaying fish and other sea creatures had been found off Florida's eastern coast and in the Gulf of Mexico. She clamped the headset back on and spoke into the mike. "Monitoring room? We'd better wind in the RMT. We're in the middle of an algae bloom—red stuff, acres of it. I think it's the poisonous variety." The headset squawked a reply and Cheryl said, "We're to close the release gear and bring the trawl in." When Gordon didn't immediately respond, she snapped, "What are you waiting for? If we pick up any of this crap it'll take days to clean out." Gordon backed away from the rail, his high forehead creased in a perplexed frown. "Where's it come from? There must be tons and tons of the stuff." Still frowning, he went over to the winch and began winding. The girl gazed down at the water, mesmerized a little, lost in the illusion that she was on a bridge with a river flowing underneath. Her snub nose with its sprinkle of freckles (the one that Gordon thought was real cute) wrinkled as she caught a whiff of something rotten, and in the churning red wake she saw the white upturned bellies of hundreds of fish. A shoal of poisoned sea bass. In spite of the warmth of the sun she felt a shiver ripple down her spine. What had caused it? What had gone wrong? A natural ecological foul-up or man-made thermal pollution? IfVUl -" And just imagine, she thought, shuddering, if the bloom kept right on multiplying and spreading and poisoning all the fish. It would eventually take over, filling all the oceans of the world with a stinking red poisonous mess. Every sea creature would die, and the bloom miht not stop there—when it had conquered the oceans it would infiltrate the river systems and lakes and streams. It might even gain a roothold on the land. . . . Cherl shook herself out of the nightmare. Thank God it was only imagination. Bill Inchcape—Binch as everyone called him—in short-sleeved shirt and check trousers was seated at the keyboard of the computer terminal in the cavernous air-conditioned basement where DELFI was oused behind hermetically sealed three-inch steel doors. This precaution was less for security reasons than to protect the germanium circuitry and memory disks against changes in temperature and humidity. The predominantly male staff had decided that DELFI was female, and thus any temperamental outbursts or fits of electronic pique were put down to premenstrual tension. Data from all parts of the world were received at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, and fed into the computer, and it was the physicist's job to extract the climatic anomalies and prepare a summary, which was circulated to various government agencies. What purpose this information served nobody knew—it was Binch's hunch, as he confided to Brad Zittel, that it merely served to justify Washington's funding of the center, made them feel they were getting sufficient "drudge for their dollar." At the moment he was up to his ears in print-out, his stubby, hairy arms paddling through it like a swimmer breasting a wave. Down here it was quite cool, though Binch still sweated—with his girth he could afford to—the garish strip-lighting reflecting on his damp scalp through baby-fine rapidly thinning hair. "You wouldn't think it could get any worse, but it always seems to," Binch complained in his reedy voice. "Just look at all this stuff!" Brad Zittel settled himself on a gray metal console. Reels spun in the shadowy background; relays chattered discreetly. He wasn't at his best this morning. Dark circles ringed his eyes. For two months or more he'd been waking at 4:00 A.M., making a pot of China tea, and watching the sky slowly brighten from his study window. Sometimes he didn't expect the sun to perform its daily miracle. "Worse in what sense?" he asked dully. "The anomalies are getting worse or there are more of them?" Quality and quantity both up. This is supposed to be a two-day job and it's going to take a week. Listen to this." Binch snatched a print-out at random and read: '"Sweden: Rainfall increased by two hundred percent with some areas recording average monthly amounts in one day.' And this: 'Finland: Coldest December on record in Helsinki since measurements began in 1829.'" He lifted a thick sheaf of print-out and thrust it toward Brad. "Here, look for yourself," he mumbled, sitting back in the swivel chair and lighting a cigarette. Brad took a breath, trying to quell the too-familiar panic rising in his chest, trying to tell himself not to be such a prick. He breathed out and fixed his eyes on the neat blocks of electric type. libya: belgium: brazil: Highest maximum December tempera ture since 1924. Precipitation during December and January exceptionally low. Coldest winter since 1962-1963. Fifth coldest this century. Northeast state of Caera experienced worst drought in living memory. Frost reported on 6—7 days in the south and snow fell in Rio Grande do Sul (extremely rare event) . Severe cold temperatures during early January accompanied by heavy snowfall. Record maximum temperatures in Western Australia. Town of Cocklebiddy reported a new max of 51.7°C. McMurdo and South Pole stations measured record max temperatures dur ing late December. Both Canadian and Russian sources report temperatures 14°C . below normal, making it the coldest February on record. Czechoslovakia: australia: antarctica: arctic ocean: Brad discovered that his hands were shaking. He couldn't read any more. He attempted to fold the print-out, made a hash of it, and dropped it on the pile. "What's the matter?" asked Binch alertly. "Are you okay?" Brad Zittel smiled diffidently and smoothed back his brown wavy hair. A NASA pin flared in the lapel of his cotton jacket. "I haven't been sleeping too well, I guess. Joyce keeps telling me I need a vacation. Could be she's right." "You do look kinda beat." Binch exhaled smoke through his broad nostrils, which had hairs growing out of them. He eyed Brad shrewdly. "Have you still got that pollution bee in your bonnet? Is that it? Come on, Brad, buddy, you're taking it far too seriously. This old ball of mud isn't gonna peg out just yet." Brad gestured. "These anomalies ... every month more of them ..." "We've always had them, for Christ's sake, ever since records were kept. In fact we're probably finding more freak conditions today precisely because every Tom, Dick, and Harry is monitoring the climate more closely. Ever think of that?" "I've thought about it." "But you're not convinced." Brad kneaded his palms, his eyes downcast. "Do you remember the preface you wrote to the last summary?" he said quietly. "I can't get one ine out of my head. 'Reports of long-standing records being broken n'ere received almost daily from all seven continents.' Those are your words, Binch, not mine." The corpulent physicist squirmed a little in his chair. "Yeah, all right," he conceded, "so the weather isn't behaving normally just now. But what in hell is normal? You've got to see it over the long term, Brad. What we consider 'average weather' for the first half of this century needn't necessarily be 'average' for the latter half. Most of the records we use for comparison stretch from 1900 to 1970—but maybe that period was abnormal and the climatic pattern today is the normal one." He stubbed out his cigarette and shrugged elaborately. "Plain fact is, we simply don't know." "And what about DELFI? What does she have to say?" "DELFI's like most females. Keeps changing her mind. Anyway, she can only come up with a prediction based on existing data; it's merely an extrapolation of present trends." It sounded like an evasive reply, which it was. If the computer's forecasts weren't worth a row of beans, why bother with it in the first place? The truth was that Binch didn't want to admit that the computer was a washout (he needed those Washington dollars), while at the same time he was unhappy with its pronouncements. In the manner of such beasts it was named after the rather forced acronym for Determining Environmental Logistics for Future Interpretation. In plain English its function was to analyze and correlate changes in global weather and to predict climatic patterns in the future. To this end it was directly linked with NORPAX (North Pacific Experiment) and CLIMAP (Climate Long-Range Investigation Mapping and Prediction). Taken together, these three should have provided the most accurate forecasts of what would happen to the global climate over the next fifty years. So far, however, the conclusions had been contradictory, which was what upset Binch. The computer was his brainchild, but it was showing itself a somewhat recalictrant offspring. He turned back to the keyboard and punched keys. The terminal chattered and jerked out more paper. Binch scanned it in silence, wiped his moist fingertips on the front of his shirt, and pressed more keys. Against his will, Brad felt his attention wrenched to what DELFI was spewing out. united states : In northern and central areas the mean temperature anomaly was 11°C. , making it the coldest winter this century. Many stations recorded new temperature minima. Los Angeles had its lowest temperature since 1882. He began to hum a tune, repeating the same fragment of melody over and over again. Something about "a marbled bowling ball." Binch stopped typing and glanced up uneasily. Brad was staring into space, oblivious, humming his tune. One of Maj. Bradley T. Zittel's keenest pleasures was to stand at the wide window of his third-floor office and lose himself in contemplation of the picture-postcard scenery. The view warmed his soul and calmed his mind: the icy backbone of the Rockies thrusting sharply against the translucent blue of a cloudless sky; sunlight, so pure and clean, reflecting from the snowy peaks with an intensity that hurt the eyes. For 80 million years the mountains had stood thus, aloof and daunting, indifferent to what went on around them. They didn't seek to be admired. Their grandeur and awesome beauty were sufficient unto themselves. His eye beheld them and they didn't give a damn whether he looked or not, but remained uncompromising, a savage act of nature arrested in time and space. His first sight of the earth from the region of the moon had evoked the same response in him. It had also changed his life. Born in San Antonio, Texas, a graduate of the Carnegie Institute of Technology, he had enlisted in the navy and continued his studies at MIT, emerging with a degree in aeronautics and astronautics. Then came four years with NASA during which he took part in three missions, the longest being an eighty-one-day stint in Skylab. It was to have a profound effect on his whole philosophy. Up to that point, aged twenty-nine, he had thought no more or less about the environment and matters of ecology than it was fashionable to do. In fact he was rather weary of hearing people refer to the earth as "a spaceship with finite resources." Like a danger signal too often repeated, it was dismissed as alarmist propaganda. Of course the planet had to be protected, its resources conserved. He understood that. But why keep harping on about it and rehashing the same old stale arguments? Anyway, you couldn't walk more than a couple of yards without stumbling over a conservationist; there were ecology nuts everywhere. Surely the government was taking the necessary steps, acting on all this free advice. Then he went into space. As he looked down upon the earth, he thought it was so damned beautiful. He'd been expecting that, of course, having seen with every other person living the color shots of the swirling blue-white planet set against the velvety blackness of space. Still, it was beautiful, no denying it—and vulnerable. That's what threw him This incredibly beautiful, peaceful-looking planet loating all alone in the infinite reaches of the cosmos. And although he'd always known this to be true intellectually, now he actually felt the truth of it. He remembered thinking, My God, this is it—and it's all we've got! In that moment, 130 miles in space, he ceased to be an American citizen and became a citizen of the planet. Every astronaut he knew felt the same. From out there it was all so painfully, horribly obvious that mankind, squabbling and falling out like a pack of ignorant loutish children, was in danger of fouling its own nest. They were mindlessly overpopulating the planet, squandering its resources, filling it with deadly pollution. And all the while demanding more, grabbing more, pushing one another out of the way in a stupid, selfish, greedy scramble. That experience, that revelation, five years ago, still had the power to make him tremble. It had fueled his determination to do something about it. But what could he do? Wage a one-man crusade against the despoilment of the planet? That was naive and, worse, futile. A solution of sorts presented itself when, on leaving NASA for the big cruel world outside, he'd been invited by an old friend and classmate from MIT, Bill Inchcape, to join him at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Bill said they needed somebody with his kind of experience to take charge of satellite photography and evaluation. So for the past three years Brad had been head of the department, working in collaboration with the center's meterologists and atmospheric physicists, people with their heart in the right place, he felt. Yet still it wasn't enough. In a .way he couldn't explain—even to Binch, who possessed far more technical knowledge and expertise than he did—Brad was gripped by a steadily mounting sense of panic. Time, he ''as convinced, was rapidly running out. Years ago he had read somewhere that "we shall be unable to detect any adverse trend on a global scale until it has gone some way in its development." That's what really scared him, haunted him—the obsessive fear that the process had already begun, and that by the time it became evident to skeptical scientists and bull-headed politicians, it would be too late. By then the world would be sliding headlong toward an inescapable ecological doomsday, with nothing for mankind to do but slide helplessly with it. Brad turned away from the window with its magnificent mountain panorama and sat down at his desk, a small dapper man with a gentle, worried face. He was thirty-four but looked older, and he certainly felt it. He wasn't eating or sleeping properly, and it upset his wife that he never played with the kids anymore. Gary was seven and Little Pete nearly four and they couldn't understand why Daddy didn't respond to their questions and joyful enthusiasms. Joyce blamed him for being forever preoccupied with his work—but it wasn't that. Yet how could he explain that he was thinking about them, his own flesh and blood, in the most utterly real way possible? That in his mind's eye, an image that revolved endlessly like a closed spool of film, he was seeing the heritage his generation was bequeathing theirs. A dead, polluted, uninhabitable planet. He looked at his taut, outstretched hands and pressed them to his face, trying to stifle the croaking moan of despair forcing itself from his gut. Bo Anyango knelt in the baked red earth and fingered the mottled leaves of a coffeebush. The rising sun had just cleared the peaks of a distant mountain range, so the air was still pleasantly cool; yet it was tainted with the sour odor of decaying vegetable matter. Bo was mystified. Every single bush on his four-acre plot had been ruined. Shriveled discolored leaves were scattered all around, several inches deep in the furrows he had hoed with his own hands, using implements supplied by the Bakura Institute of Agriculture. Like his African neighbors, he had followed instructions and tended his crops just as the mzungu—the European agricultural officer—had shown him. And just like the crops of his neighbors, the coffeebushes had wilted and died. The only means of livelihood for himself, his wife, and five children was now so much rotten, stinking vegetation. What had gone wrong? Squatting on his skinny black haunches, Bo looked disconsolately around him. Three years work to prepare the land for the coffee crop he had been assured would fetch a good price totally wasted. He had been told of the miracles the Europeans could bring about with their powders and sprays, and he had been eager to try. JEG was the magic word on the side of the canisters. It was an English word, he supposed, revor nuyic though no one had told him its meaning He had believed in JEG, because he had seen the results with his own eyes. Crops that normally would have been stripped bare by hordes of voracious insects, commonplace in this remote region of western Kenya, had flourished and rown to maturity. The valley, once a barren waste, had blossomed. The insects had been defeated—for a while. Recently, however, some of the pests had reappeared, and in far greater numbers than before. The spider mite—not an insect but a member of the scorpion family—had returned in force, in their millions. Its razor-sharp mouth was specially adapted for piercing and sucking chlorophyll from leaves, and it had a prodigious appetite. In the past the spider mite population had been kept in check by predatory insects and birds, most of which had disappeared since they started using JEG. Animals too, he observed, had also gone, some of them found floating belly-up in the streams. Soon the valley would be denuded of vegetation, silent of birdsong, devoid of animal life. Only the vultures and the spider mites would be left. Bo knew one thing for sure. Without the coffee crop he would be unable to barter for goods, unable to feed himself and his family. He knew also that he was worse off now than he had been before the mzungu came to the valley bringing the miracle of modern science. Squeezing the rubber bulb between thumb and forefinger, Chase gingerly deposited a globule of fluid on the glass slide and positioned it under the microscope. He adjusted the magnification to a scan of 0.3 mm and the bead of water became a subminiature menagerie of marine life. Sharpening the focus, he concentrated on a particular group and after a few moments identified two subclasses of diatoms called Centricae and Pennatae. Both types had cases, or frustules, of silica, both were yellowish brown and highly ornamented. The difference lay in the sculptured patterns: In Centricae the lines radiated from a central point, whereas in Pennatae they were more or less straight. Why such diversity in such tiny organisms, less than one millimeter n length? Obviously each was suited to a specific purpose and mode of ufe, fitted perfectly into its "niche," yet he couldn't help but marvel at the seemingly endless proliferation of design and the incredibly minute adaptations to environment. By his right elbow lay his notebook and several sheets of graph paper, and next to those on the bench his heavily annotated copy of the i AIC iai JciSn standard work, Detrick's Diatom Growth and Deveopment. Taking up the book and opening it at one of the sections marked with slips of paper, he refreshed his memory. Another distinguishing feature of the Pennatae variety was that they had a narrow slit—the raphe—running along one or both valves, which enabled them to move independently along the ocean floor. Most species of diatoms were widely distributed throghout the world, and were probably, Detrick had said, the most abundant and adaptable creatures in the oceans, if not on earth. Chase wrote up his notes, frequently going back to the eyepiece to check a detail, and made rough sketches of the various subclasses to complement his descriptions. He found the ordered routine of lab work deeply satisfying. The slow, painstaking accumulation of observed data, the classifying and cross-referencing, the fragmentary picture slowly emerging—though after four months of steady work he was still a long way away from reaching any kind of conclusion. He shook his head in mute wonder at the amount of work Detrick must have put in to write his monumental study, surely a lifetime's dedication. Did he have that kind of perseverance? He doubted it; for instance, that specimen of brine he'd examined yesterday. He'd spent damn near three hours distilling it and setting up the test, and he might have been looking at tap water. The sample had obviously been spoiled, contaminated somewhere between collection and the lab. It had come from his last dive, he recalled, when Nick was handling the net. Maybe that explained why it had been low on what one would have normally expected to find in the ocean under the Antarctic Ice Shelf—low on phytoplankton, diatoms, and Ceratium. Anyway, he'd written off the sample as a botched job and thrown the whole bloody lot down the sink. So much for the objective, dispassionate scientist. No, he thought wryly, a 378-page treatise on marine biology wouldn't be appearing under the name of Dr. Gavin Chase. Still, he should have logged it. Supposing it hadn't been spoiled and he'd actually destroyed a perfectly valid specimen? But no, that was ridiculous; it would have been a freak result, against all the prevailing evidence and general consensus. Chase stretched and yawned and glanced at his watch: twenty past four. This being Friday he didn't have any qualms of conscience about packing up early. George Pelham, his research colleague, had left at three. Off on another weekend hike, Chase supposed. God, that guy must walk ten thousand miles a year. There probably wasn't a square inch of the British Isles he hadn't tramped over in his size-ten boots. It took him only a few minutes to clear away and return the specimen jars to the freezer. He hung up his white coat and shrugged into his jacket. Then in the mirror next to the wall telephone, he caught sight of his bulging shirtfront. Soft living was catching up to him, that and English beer. He must have put ten pounds on since he got back. He didn't mind not Trevor nuyic winning the Nobel, but being overweight was just too much. Bike or nool? He didn't relish the idea of cycling now that the damp autumn nihts were here, so it was down to the baths and twenty-five lengths of slow crawl. Sunday morning, definitely. He walked up the three flights of bleak concrete stairways to the flat and let himself in, feeling smugly pleased. He was only slightly out of breath. Normally Angle didn't finish at the studio till six-thirty, and then went for a drink or two—usually three—with her colleagues from the newsroom, but today she was sitting in an armchair with her feet propped up, clasping a large gin and tonic. "Like to go to a party, darling?" "When?" Chase said as if inquiring about the date of his execution. "Tonight." "Where?" "Archie's. Somebody's leaving do and Archie kindly offered. You were specifically invited, nay, commanded to attend. I said yes for both of us." Chase draped his jacket over a chair, taking his time and doing it carefully to show he wasn't annoyed, which he was. He didn't like Archie Grieve, Ange's boss, and liked even less her accepting the invitation before asking him. Archie Grieve was one of the breed of tough young Scottish journalists who had infiltrated the media south of the border. They all had pedigrees as spot-welders in the Clydeside shipyards or as Labour party activists, though to judge by Archie, whom Chase had met only once and had nothing in common with, he'd been no nearer to an oxyacetylene torch than Chase had. For the sake of peace and harmony, however, and because it wasn't fair to curtail Ange's social life because of his personal prejudices, he shrugged and nodded and even managed a smile. But she had some gall. What if he'd accepted an invitation without consulting her? Ahha! Different story. "It isn't a dinner party, I hope?" Chase said, sitting down on the couch and brushing black strands of hair from his eyes. "No, darling." Angie gave him her sweetest smile, all dimples, with a slightly muzzy look in her large gray eyes. That was her second large one, he'd bet. "ust a few friends and a buffet and drinkies." "Of course, drinkies. Where would your lot be without drinkies? I suppose they'll all be your media chums in T-shirts, earrings, and Adidas training shoes." Ange pouted. "You speak of them as if they weren't people. They do a Job, you know, just like you. I think you're jealous." "Yes, I'm green with it. Or is that envy?" "They'd like to meet you. I'm sure they'd be fascinated to hear what n s like in the Antarctic. It's not everyone who's had—" "hey know about that?" j xj JU vjap "Of course." Angie took a deep swallow, wiped the residue from her lips, and licked her fingertips. "I didn't think I was giving away a state secret." Chase groaned. It was going to be worse than he feared. A lot of frightfully interesting questions about penguins and polar bears and was it true that Eskimos went around grinning with their gums? They ate a cheese-and-mushroom omiet in the small kitchen and watched Ange's news program on the portable TV. She didn't appear on screen, but they heard her cultured tones in voice-over talking about proposed mortgage relief for one-parent families. It seemed to Chase that he'd seen that same story at least twenty times before—or perhaps it was simply that all such stories sounded exactly the same. Angie firmly believed that television had a "morally responsible role" to play in exposing social injustice, for the most part by pointing the finger at the faceless bureaucrats in local government, who were invariably, rightly or wrongly, cast as the villains of the piece. Chase's attitude was more sanguine. He couldn't whip up enthusiasm for the socially deprived, even though he readily acknowledged that they probably got a raw deal. "If you don't want to go, then we won't," Angie said, noticing his pensive expression. "I just thought you might like to get out and meet some people. You work all day in the lab, come home, and collapse in a chair." "I'm an unsocial slob," Chase agreed, collecting the plates and stacking them in the sink. "Sure, let's go. Just as long as they don't expect me to give a lantern slide lecture on the mating habits of the walrus." "What does the walrus do that's so different?" Chase thrust out his jaw. "Very difficult to describe. But I could demonstrate if you like." Angie slapped his wrist. "Not on a full stomach, darling." He made a grab for her and she ran off, squealing. Three months ago they would have made love without a second bidding, he thought, standing at the sink and mechanically washing up, full stomach or not. In the first month he couldn't remember doing much else. He was hanging up the dish cloth when the phone rang. Ange's voice floated through the hiss of water in the shower as he took the call in the corner alcove at one end of the L-shaped livingroom. "I heard it," he yelled back, picking up the phone. "Hello, Gav, how are you?" He recognized the voice; and only one person called him Gav. "Hello, Nick. How's the Lebanese Red?" Nick chuckled. "Too bloody expensive. I'm thinking of trying gluesniffing. What are you up to these days?" "The same," Chase replied, flopping down crossways in an armchair. "Developing a squint from staring down a microscope all day. What's happening with you?" Trevoi njy "That's what I'm calling you about. How do you fancy a holiday, absolutely free, all expenses paid?" "You've gone into the travel business?" "There's a conference in Geneva in two weeks time, the ninth onward for four days. The UN is sponsoring delegates from British universities and I've put my name down, but there are still a few places pen. How about it? You could take a week off, couldn't you?" "What kind of conference?" "The International Conference on the Environmental Future. The usual gab, rich food, plenty to drink, and the rest." "The rest?" Chase said obtusely. "Chicks. Like the sound of it?" "I'm a happily kept man." ick made a skeptical noise. "We might have to put in a couple of appearances, just to show we're willing, but nobody keeps a check on who does what." "Or with whom." Chase scratched his head and swung his leg. "I don't think so, thanks all the same, Nick. I've got a full schedule of lab work already planned. Anyway, what do I know about the environmental future?" "What does anybody?" Nick Power responded. Much as he'd have liked to see Nick again, Chase didn't see how he could justify a week in Geneva at the UN's expense. Better that someone who was genuinely interested should make the trip. Besides, what would Angie have to say? He'd only been back a few months, they were just getting used to each other again; she might get the notion that he was grabbing at any opportunity to get away. He didn't tell Nick that, however, fearing his reaction, but repeated his excuse about the pressure of work. Nick sounded disappointed. "You always were a conscientious bastard. You're too damn serious for your own good, Gav. That puritan working-class ethic is a load of old crap Swing loose once in a while. Relax, man." "I don't like to lose control," Chase said lamely. "Afraid of what you might find?" "Afraid there won't be anything there to find." "How's it going with you and Angie?" "Never better." At that moment the lady in question came into the room barefoot wearing a blue bathrobe with a fluffy white towel wrapped turban-style around her head, her face shiny clean, and Chase went blithely on, "Of course she's a pain in the arse sometimes, but then what woman isn't?" He clapped his hand over his mouth as if caught in the act. Angie smiled sweetly and stuck her tongue out at him. 'Sorry, Nick—what was that?" He'd missed what Nick was saying. he Russian, remember? He kept going on about Stan or Nick and u> jqn we couldn't figure out what he meant. I was looking through the conference brochure and one of the delegates is a Professor Stanovni. ; Get it? Stan-ov-nik." "Is he Russian too?" "Yeah, think so." There was a riffling of paper and a tuneless whistle, and then Nick said, "Professor B. V. Stanovnik of the HydroMeterological Service, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Moscow." | Perhaps Stanovnik and the guy we found were colleagues." \ Chase gnawed at his thumbnail, trying to make the connection : between the two of them. The Hydro-Meteorological Service was cer- ' tainly in the right area. Oceans. Climate. But who was Stanovnik? More to the point, hat was he? Climatologist? Oceanographer? "Is Stanovnik giving a paper at the conference?" he asked. "He's on the list of speakers, but it doesn't say what subject or give • the title of his paper. "Nick chuckled over the line. "Do you want me to : ask him what he knows about the absorption of carbon dioxide in seawater? That was it, wasn't it?" "Yes, that was it," Chase said slowly. "But you'd be better off asking him what he doesn't know about it. If the Russian was carrying out research, then presumably it was to fill in a blank somewhere—something the Hydro-Meteorological Service was keen to find out. That's assuming there's a link between them, which is unlikely." Nick said he'd keep it in mind, that he was sorry Chase couldn't drag himself away, and they said their good-byes. The conversation ran around his head while he showered, almost absentmindedly hunting for the soap, which Ange always managed to misplace, even in the damned shower. Women of certain breeding, he had come to learn, were congenital slatterns, as if expecting as of right that a posse of servants was there to scurry after them, clearing up, tidying away. At idle moments he had pondered the unsolved antarctic "mystery." Nothing had ever appeared in the newspapers about the man who had died of a brain hemorrhage, and why should there? It was one of those odd incidents you witnessed or heard about, you puzzled over for a while, and then forgot. But for Nick bringing it up, he most likely wuldn't have brought it to mind again, except perhaps as a curious incident to enliven a dull conversation down at the local pub. Stan-ov-nik. Is that what he'd been trying to say? Stan or Nick. Stan-ov-nik. Stan or Nick. Stanovnik. Well . . . yes. Stan or— "What the hell are you mumbling about in there?" Ange's face appeared around the edge of the frosted shower screen, hair damp and tousled from being rubbed. Through the steam he could see the soft swell of her breasts at the bathrobe's overlapping V neck. "Remember what I said about the walrus?" "Yes?" •-- "Look at this," He reached out and fastened on her wrist. "No!" "No?" Drawing her in. "My robe—it'll get wet." "Then take it off." "Oh, Gavin, we'll be late!" "Not the way the walrus does it." "Hows that?" "Like this." In the first hour Chase had three stiff whiskeys, lost sight of Ange, nodded distantly at three or four people, and wandered in a mellow haze fom room to room of the large old house. Everything was stripped down to the bare wood. Their host had greeted them at the door attired in a plum-colored velvet jacket, faded denims, and fashionably scuffed raining shoes. (Adidas—he knew it!) He couldn't have looked less like a Clydeside spot-welder if he'd tried, Chase thought uncharitably. And the little squirt—he was under five feet six—had kissed Ange not on the cheek but on the lips, with a warmth that didn't befit an employeremployee relationship. It prompted him to wonder whether she' d been unfaithful while he was away, which led to the speculation of how he, Chase, might have behaved had the circumstances been reversed. He'd have been tempted, but would he have fallen? He didn't honestly know. Content with the Scotch for company, Chase stood in the lee of a monstrous growth of dark-green shrubbery that sprouted from a Victorian urn. What was it about these people he didn't like? He felt uncomfortable, the stranger-in-a-strange-land syndrome. They inhabited a world he didn't understand, glossy and slick, "trendy" in the worst possible meaning of the word. As if—this was the implication, he sensed—what they were involved in mattered, was at the center of the stage, while everyone else didn't matter and was thus relegated to shadowy anonymity. Steady, he told himself. Yur paranoia is showing. He guzzled the Scotch and tried to remain inconspicuous. "You're Ange's man," said a small dark-haired girl, appearing at his elbow. Obviously not inconspicuous enough. Chase nodded and looked down into large brown eyes ringed with spiky black lashes. She wore an embroidered sleeveless jacket over a loose peasant dress with a revealing neckline. He could see where her tan ended. Thin gold bracelets clinked on her arms. "Dr. Chase, the intrepid Arctic explorer." "Right bloke, wrong continent," Chase replied. ne girl bit her lip in mock horror. "I do beg your pardon. Geography as nver my best subject. That's at the bottom, isn't it?" 'h Or the arse-end as we Arctic explorers might say." The girl's head fell back and she laughed, showing small, sharp, white teeth. Chase tried not to stare at her trembling bosom. "You know my name. What's yours?" The girl said she was called Jill, touched his glass with hers, and drank. "Swell party," he said benignly, grimacing with pleasure as the whiskey warmed his gut. Ange was right. For three months he'd been completely absorbed in his work and it was high time he got smashed. The mood beckoned to him like a seductive lover. "You really think so?" "Definitely. Plenty of excellent free Scotch and attractive company." "I thought Arctic explorers were supposed to be shy." "That wasn't a proposition." "Wasn't it? Oh, what a pity." She pouted coquettishly and he wasn't sure whether she was being serious or pulling his leg. "You fit the description, anyway. My illusions haven't been shattered." "What description?" Chase said, having lost the drift. "For Arctic explorers. Tall, dark, and handsome." Was she being serious? "I suppose Glaswegian spot-welders are short, fat, and hairy," he said. "What?" "Private joke. You work in television, I suppose." "I'm a PA. Production assistant." Chase had only a vague idea what that was. Jill explained. "I do the running around, getting everything organized. We move about a lot, news, current affairs, documentaries, local programs. PAs are the gofers of the television industry. Without us it would collapse." Chase had never thought of television as an industry. Its product seemed so ephemeral. In one eye and out the other. "What do you do when you're not exploring?" she asked him. "I'm in the marine biology department at the university. At the moment I'm classifying some specimens I brought back from the Antarctic. Microscopic plant life." Chase waved his hand dismissively. "Not very interesting to the layman, I'm afraid. Or the laywoman, for that matter." "Plankton?" Jill said. She gave him a look. "I may get my continents mixed up, but I'm not completely stupid." "Well, 'plankton' is a general term for all floating plant and animal life in the seas and rivers. My speciality is Haosphaera, Phaeocystis, sihcofJageJJates, andBacilariophyceae." That'dteachhertobesucha smart ass. But apparently that hadn't dampened her interest, for she asked him to tell her more about them, which Chase found difficult. The alcohol didn't help. To simplify it, he said, "They form the basic diet for most fish—phytoplankton, that is, the plant forms. If you look at a pond ou'll see the bottom carpeted with the stuff, with millions of tiny silver bubbles clinging to it. That's oxygen, which phytoplankton releases after splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. They're a very primitive organism, been around for, oh, two thousand million years or more. But for the phytoplankton we wouldn't be having this conversation." "Why, are they that important?" "You have to breathe, don't you?" "That's where we get our oxygen from?" Chase nodded. "There wasn't any around to begin with. Most people think it's always been a constituent of the atmosphere, but when the planet was formed the atmosphere was highly poisonous—to us, that is. Mainly hydrogen, ammonia, and methane. Then the early primitive forms of algae came along and started releasing oxygen, which eventually formed the ozone layer, protecting the early animal life from ultraviolet radiation. So it does two crucial jobs: gives us oxygen to breathe and prevents us from frying." Jill looked thoughtful for a moment. "I always had the idea that the trees did that—gave us oxygen. You know, all this fuss about the rain forests in South America and Southeast Asia. They're destroying millions of acres and burning them, which apparently does something to the climate." "That's true. All green plants take in carbon dioxide and give off oxygen, but the best estimates we have suggest that the phytoplankton in the oceans provides roughly seventy percent of the recycled oxygen. Sure, the trees are important, but if we didn't have phytoplankton there wouldn't have been any trees in the first place." "It isn't dull at all," Jill said reprovingly. "Why do you pretend it is?" "Do I?" Chase shrugged. He swirled his whiskey, making the ice cubes clink. "I suppose it's because most people never give a second thought to the way the biosphere works. They just take it for granted. They don't understand that the whole bag of tricks depends on microscopic plant life, so when you start talking about it they just turn glassy-eyed and drop into a doze. You have to be a genius like David Attenborough to make them see and understand." "What about Sir Frederick Cole?" "What about him?" "You've heard of him, I take it?" There was a gleam in her brown eyes and an underlying hint of mockery in her tone, as if it were his turn to be patronized. He chided himself for taking Jill at his own estimation—a shallow media person, all mouth and trousers—when clearly she had more up top. "He was one of my lecturers at Cambridge. We used to call him 'Firebrand Fred.' " 'You actually know him then? He's coming into the studio next week to give a talk for a schools program. We're taping it next Wednesday afternoon and I'm the gofer." "I should think he'd be rather good on the telly," Chase said, thinking about it. "Blunt northern humor, straight from the shoulder. An instant TV guru." Jill laughed. "We've made him buy a new suit. He turned up at the office wearing a pullover with holes in it and the crotch of his trousers somewhere level with his kneecaps. If I hadn't met him at the station I don't think the doorman would have let him into the building. 'Firebrand Fred,' " she said, giggling. "That suits him. I'll call him that next time I see him." "Feel free," Chase said darkly, "but don't mention my name. What's he going to be talking about?" "It's one of a series of programs dealing with different aspects of aquatic life in English lakes and rivers. How plants and animals adapt to their particular environments. I wasn't involved in the filming, just the linking sequences in the studio." It occurred to Chase that if he wanted to pick someone's brains about CO absorption in seawater, he couldn't do better than Sir Fred. He'd earned his knighthood for impressive research work in the sixties and early seventies and was still regarded as one of the top three people in the field, even though he'd given up the lab bench for the lecture platform. "Would it be possible to meet him while he's here?" "Yes, I don't see why not." Jill gave a slow, lingering wink. "You could meet me at the same time. Why not come to the studio on Wednesday? I'm sure Firebrand would be delighted to meet one of his old students." "What time?" "He'll be arriving about one and will probably have lunch in the canteen. We're in the studio at two-thirty and we'll be through by four or soon after. After would be better, I think. He'll be fidgeting with notes and things before the recording." "Late afternoon suits me better too," Chase said. "What is it, something to do with your work? Or a reunion?" "More of a general problem really." Chase stroked his jaw. "A small matter of marine chemistry." Jill pointed at his empty glass. "That looks like a small matter of alcohol deficiency. Can I get you another?" Chase thanked her in advance and gave up his glass. Angie strolled up, her long hollow cheeks flushed, arms linked with Archie Grieve. He wondered again about her fidelity, or lack of it. Or was he being provincial and boorish? He suspected that Jill had been making gentle fun of him and was surprised to find that he rather enjoyed it. "I'm just about to get Gavin some more of our excellent Scotch," Jill revui nuyic said, kissing Archie on the cheek. "Won't be a minute." She gave Chase an amused glance over her shoulder and went off. Chase smiled ruefully. Had she got the dig about Glaswegian spotwelders? He looked at Ange, still hanging on Archie's arm, rather unsteadily, and at the drink in her hand, which fuzzed and sparkled. "What's that?" "Champers, darling!" Angie exclaimed. "Like some?" Chase shook his head, feeling a Ittle woozy himself. Noticing how the reflected sparkle made tiny dancing highlights on the underside of her chin. Remembering too that what gave champagne its fizz were bubbles of carbon dioxide suddenly released into the atmosphere. The blond secretary with the silver claws reacted visibly when he appeared in front of her desk. Most of the men who passed through her office on their way to see the deputy director of the World Oceanographic Data Center were conservatively dressed in dark business suits, crisp shirts, and polished shoes. A few of the younger ones, it was true, wore open-necked shirts, sports jackets, and slacks, but here was somebody in his sixties who looked for all the world like a beachcomber down on his luck. She half-rose in alarm, appraising with distaste the dingy crumpled T-shirt under the cord jacket with torn pockets whose peculiar shade of green might almost be mildew (she looked closely and saw that it was mildew), the creased, dirty-white twill trousers with ragged bottoms, the sneakers without laces, which might have been many moons ago, white. And no socks! Quite stunned by this apparition in the sanctity of her Washington office on an otherwise unremarkable Tuesday morning, Ms. Weston could only stare speechlessly, and it was left to Theo Detrick to introduce himself. In his soft guttural accent, a remnant of his German ancestry, he reminded her of his appointment with Dr. Parris Winthrop, the deputy director. "You—you are Dr. Detrick?" "That is correct," he said patiently. Parris Winthrop was less taken aback than amused. "Theo, marvelous to see you!" he enthused, striding around his huge walnut desk to greet him. He towered over Theo, clad in a dark-gray suit with a matching tie flecked with pale yellow. "You look wonderful! But what the hell are you wearing?" "What I always wear." Theo swapped his bulging briefcase with the broken clasp from right to left in order to shake hands. "Macy's haven't Rot around to opening a store on Canton Island as yet." ''throp patted his shoulder, genuine pleasure on his broad, ruddy, me La»i asp well-fed face, and indicated a leather armchair. "Like something to drink?" "Coffee, black, will be fine." "I was thinking of something with a bit more bite. Don't tell me you've become Spartan in everything," Winthrop said jovially. "I like to keep a clear head during the day. "Theo sat back holding the briefcase flat on his knees with both hands. It was worn and scratched and some of the stitching had come adrift. "Coffee it is then." Winthrop smiled and leaned across the desk to press the intercom tab. A gold signet ring flashed on his little finger. Having given the order he offered cigarettes from an ornate silver casket, which Theo declined, and then lit one himself with the onyx desk lighter. The white-haired scientist let his eyes roam around the spacious office. Slats of sunlight from the Venetian blinds imprinted gold bars on the thick carpet. Parris had every reason to be expansive and highly pleased both with the world and himself. He had climbed high on the ladder since their student days at McGill. Both had come from poor homes and nonintellectual backgrounds, both had finished top in their respective subjects. Then Parris had had the good fortune to receive a Traveling Fellowship, which he chose to spend at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institut in Dresden. While Theo had doggedly embarked on the long hard slog of—in those days—underpaid research in small laboratories up and down the country, Parris had been given the luxury of several prestigious options, including the post of director of the Pacific Fisheries Experimental Station, then based in Hawaii. After that it was plain sailing. Or maybe it wasn't, Theo considered, knowing how the outward show of a person's life was often misleading. Perhaps Parris had struggled and fought as much as the next man, the difference being that he had taken his chances, had had the good sense to stay near the center of influence. A string of administrative appointments had eventually led to this post and this office: deputy director of a world-renowned and respected scientific establishment. And next year, or sometime soon, the director, top of the heap. From Theo Detrick's point of view, however the prestige was of less importance than the fact that Parris was on PSAC. The President's Scientific Advisory Committee. "When was it, three, four years ago?" Winthrop said. He snapped his lean fingers. "Dedication ceremony at Scripps for the physical oceanography annex. Right?" Theo nodded. "You'd just been appointed deputy director here." "And I met your daughter there. She was at Scripps, taking her Ph.D. Where is she now?" "Still there, doing postgraduate work. According to her last letter." "Haven't you seen her recently?" revui luy "Not for over a year." Theo examined his brown grizzled hands. "I don't get to the States very often. On this trip I shipped into San Francisco and flew directly here." Winthrop waited a moment. Whatever had brought his old friend seven thousand miles, it wasn't merely to pay a social call. "I guess it must be pretty important then." "I think so." Theo cleared his throat and opened the one remaining clasp on his briefcase. He carefully extracted a thick stack of papers loosely contained between stiff covers and tied together with black tape. It was bulky enough to require both hands as he placed it on the gleaming expanse of desk. "My research," he said quietly. Winthrop looked at it and then at Theo. "Over how long?" Theo stared beyond him to the Venetian blinds, lost in speculation. He blinked slowly and said, "Altogether, twenty years. Most of it is over the last ten years, as regards actual conclusions. But the records are complete since 1970." There was no smugness or boasting; it was a statement of fact. "I'd like you to study it, if you would, and then we can see the president together." A corrugation of V-shaped lines appeared below the deputy director's silvery widow's peak. He looked at the heap of soiled documentation in its dog-eared covers despoiling his beautiful desk and then regarded Theo blankly. "I don't understand. The president?" "You're still a member of the advisory committee?" Winthrop nodded, a little more warily now. Ms. Weston tapped and entered discreetly, leaving a tray with coffee. Theo waited until she had gone. "That's the reason I came to see you. I don't know of any other way, except through you, Parris, with your help." "Now you don't understand me. What I meant was, why do you have to see him? About what?" Theo's expression was calm, stoical. His clear blue eyes, the color of a washed sky, showed no emotion as he said, "We are in danger of running out of oxygen. The amount in the atmosphere will decline by the year 2000—possibly after that, I'm not certain when exactly—but it will certainly fall below the level capable of supporting life on this planet. All animal life, that is, including man." His square brown hand made a delicate gesture toward the heap of paper. "The evidence is all there. Records over twenty years of the decline in the phytoplankton index, which is continuing at a steadily increasing rate." "Theo, old man," Winthrop said faintly. "Do you seriously expect me to tell the president that the world is about to perish through asphyxiation?" "No," Theo corrected him at once. "I want you to arrange a meeting so that can tell him. That is why I'm here, why I came in person. This is my task, my responsibility, Parris, not yours." It J JX«r JJUlJL VJCU Winthrop's healthy, urbane face had frozen into a mask of pained unease. He'd read what isolation could do to the mind. Was he seeing it at first hand in the ragged figure who sat before him? With an effort he tried to clear his mind and concentrate on what Theo was saying. "I'm not asking you to take my word alone. If I were, I'd be as mad as you're beginning to think I am. What I ask is that you consider this information objectively, as a scientist, and draw your own conclusions." "Which you believe will be the same as yours." "If you're honest and consider the data without prejudice, yes," Theo told him frankly. "It's all there in the records. I don't have to convince you; study them and you'll see." "The evidence is completely incontrovertible?" "Yes." "Then why not publish it?" Theo smiled, his head craggy and solid as a carving in the filtered light. "I intend to, but I know it will be seen by many people as yet another doomsday prophecy. Another fanciful way for the world to end." He clenched his fist and leaned forward. "What I need—must have—is the support of an organization such as yours and, ultimately, the support of the president. Only then will people begin to listen and take the threat seriously." "But is it as serious as you make out, Theo?" Winthrop asked bluntly. "You've taken readings from a specific fixed location, remember. I've seen a number of recent reports on phytoplankton growth in the Atlantic, and while it's true that there has been a decline north of fifty-nine degrees north, there's actually been an increase in southern latitudes. As you know better than anyone, Theo, the phytoplankton population is subject to cyclical change and seasonal variation. How do you know that what you've been observing isn't simply a local phenomenon, confined to the equatorial Pacific?" "Fair point," Theo said, helping himself to coffee. He stirred in a spoonful of sugar, sipped, and nodded appreciatively. "I've been used to instant." He took another sip and said, "I chose Canton Island as my base because it lies in the ten-degree belt where cold-water upwelling takes place for most of the year. This provides the ideal conditions for abundant growth of microorganisms—in the first place because the water rising from two- to three-hundred-meter depths is rich in nutrients; and, second, because phytoplankton thrives in cooler water. Also, phytoplankton cannot grow at extreme depths because of insufficient light, which blocks photosynthesis. But given all these conditions—ample sunlight, cooler water, and plenty of nutrients—it should bloom copiously. And that's precisely what isn't happening." Winthrop twisted the signet ring, working it around and around, his face somber. "What you're saying is that if the phytoplankton is declining in the ocean around Canton Island, where conditions are the most 11CV favorable, then the situation must be the same if not worse elsewhere in he world." "A logical conclusion, I'd say. Wouldn't you?" Theo met the deputy director's eye squarely. "Unfortunately that isn't all." •'What else?" Winthrop said stonily. He wasn't sure that he wanted to hear any more. "Well"—Theo placed his cup and saucer on the tray—"this part, I admit, is a hypothesis, but it follows on directly from my research findings. We know that the tropical oceans accumulate a net surplus of solar energy over the year, while the subarctic and arctic oceans show a net loss. Through the various poleward currents, such as the Gulf Stream, this excess heat is transferred from the tropics to the higher latitudes, and at the same time there's a deep return flow of cooler wr toward the equator, resulting in upwelling. This is the mechanism that keeps the planet in thermal equilibrium." Theo tapped the bulky folder. "But if the phytoplankton is declining, as my records show, one possible cause is a temperature increase in the deep return flow to the tropics. It could be gradually getting warmer." It took Winthrop several moments to see what the scientist was driving at. Warmer currents from the polar oceans could mean only one thing: that the polar oceans themselves were getting warmer. Which in turn meant that something was warming them. He grimaced as if in pain and shut his eyes. "We're back to the CO problem." Theo nodded and poured himself more coffee. Winthrop opened his eyes. "This is all supposition, though, isn't it? You've no concrete proof." "About the warming of the polar oceans caused indirectly by a buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, yes. About the decline in the phytoplankton index leading to oxygen depletion, no." "Theo, you can't be that certain!" Winthrop objected, nervously smoothing his tie with a manicured hand. "We're not even sure how much oxygen the phytoplankton contributes to the atmosphere. Nobody agrees on a precise figure—" "But everybody agrees it's well over fifty percent," Theo reminded him. Possibly as high as seventy percent. How long could we survive if over haf our oxygen supply was cut off?" Winthrop didn't know what to say. There was something wrong with Theo's reasoning; there had to be. But he couldn't spot the flaw. Like every other ecological process, the manufacture of oxygen by photosynthesis was inextricably bound up with a host of other atmospheric and oceanic factors. Nothing operated independently, as of itself. Therefore if the oxygen level was being disturbed or disrupted in some 'av it should be apparent elsewhere in the system. Other things— bloical processes—would be affected. But what processes? Where " lok? Where to begin? He breathed a long sigh. "This is a helluva lot to ask, Theo." "I'm asking only one thing," Theo aintained stolidly, his rugged face grim, mouth set. "Evaluate the data. Is that asking too much?" "And if I think you're wrong?" Theo sat in silence. Finally he said, "Then I'll go somewhere else. The World Meterological Organization or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Somebody somewhere will listen eventually. They'll have to." "Maybe so, but do you honestly believe the president will pay heed to a warning like this? Do you?" There was a thin note of asperity in his voice. Theo was an old friend, a scientist whose selfless dedication he had always admired, even envied. But my God, how naive! A romantic idealist in the murky world of government, with its half-truths and compromises and machinations. Whereas he was well-practiced in such expediency, as of course he had to be, for the sake of his own survival. He gestured angrily at the heap of paper. Angry because this raggedtrousered innocent out to save the world had walked into his office on a perfectly ordinary morning and threatened to upset the applecart. Winthrop wouldn't have minded so much if it hadn't been his damn applecart! "Supposing he took you seriously. Just what do you think he could do? Have you thought of that? The CO problem, if it exists, is global. Every developed nation is pouring billions of tons of the stuff into the atmosphere every year from power plants and furnaces and factories. What in hell is he supposed to do, Theo? Stop the fucking world?" Theo gazed unwaveringly at the immaculately groomed man behind the desk. "I'm a marine biologist," he said, "not a politician. I'll do everything I can, but then it's up to others, to people like you, Parris. I don't know what more I can do." Winthrop rose wearily and came around the desk. He didn't feel like smiling, though he managed to find the ghost of one. "All right Theo, I'll have my staff look it over and come up with an evaluation. That's all I can promise." "That's all I ask," Theo said, standing up. He looked down at his feet. "Perhaps I should have worn socks." Winthrop patted him on the shoulder as they walked to the door. "Are you staying in Washington?" "For a few days, that's all. I was thinking of flying out to the West Coast to see my daughter." "Okay, call me before you leave. Just one thing ..." Winthrop said, pausing with his hand on the knob. "Is there any way we can verify this? If your hypothesis is right about warmer currents from the poles, there must be other signs, other factors we can look for." "There ought to be several," Theo said, staring hard at the swirling walnut veneer on the door. "Unfortunately the ecological changes will be so gradual—almost imperceptible—that it might take years for them to become apparent. But one of the first will be the absorption level of carbon dioxide in polar seawater. If the pCO has reached saturation point, then we'll know for sure." When the scientist had gone the deputy director of the World Oceanographic Data Center sat at his desk and stared broodingly at twenty ears of work between bent and discolored covers, twisting the gold signet ring around and around. Kenichi Hanamura fought his way to street level, feeling like a minnow among a pack of barracuda. His spectacles were fogged and he eperienced blind helplessness as he was carried bodily along, jammed shoulder to shoulder, in the crush of morning commuters. How many more were they going to cram into Tokyo before the city collapsed under the strain? Even the subway system, supposedly the most advanced and sophisticated in the world, was barely able to cope. So what about next year when it was estimated that the city's population would exceed 23 million? On the street it was less congested, but now Hanamura had the fumes to contend with. He debated whether or not to wear his mask. He ought to, of course, because the doctor had advised it after he'd complained of chest pains six months ago. But he hated the damn thing and was reluctant to take it from his briefcase, Stupid, really, because as an insurance claims investigator he was well aware of the risks. He'd seen the statistics for himself, the bland gray columns of figures, which to the trained eye made horrifying reading. People suffering from bronchitis and emphysema up one third in the past five years. Death toll increased by 9 percent in the last year alone, directly attributed to toxic pollution in Japan's major cities and industrial areas. Premiums would have to go up again to cover the escalating risk. The thought of those figures nagged him as he passed the sheer glass-and-aluminum facade of the Mitsukoshi department store. Numbers, graphs, charts always seemed more real to him, made a sharper impact somehow, than the evidence of his own eyes. Especially because at forty-four years old, a city-dweller with a sedentary occupation, he was right there in the danger zone. It was small comfort to know that his American wife, Lilian, and their thirteen-year-old son, Frank, were adequately covered in the event of his death by the company's Blue Star plan, one of the perks of the job. orn habit Hanamura glanced across the busy street at the huge illuminated sign on the corner of the Kyoto Banking Corporation building. The sign looked anemic in the bright sunlight, yet even so he could clearly read the daily pollution index spelled out in electronic digits in parts per million. carbon monoxide : 310 PPM sulfur dioxide: 0.46 PPM The warning was stark enough even for Kenichi Hanamura. Moving out of the throng of hurrying people he fumbled in his briefcase for his mask. The straps were entangled with something and he tugged impatiently, losing his temper. And now his glasses were misting over again and he couldn't see! It wasn't his glasses, he realized, it was his vision. Whenever he tried to focus on a particular object there was a round white blob in the way. His heart jumped in panic. He swayed and thrust out his hand to steady himself against the polished granite base of the building. Even though he knew what was happening to him he couldn't understand why there wasn't any pain. He tried to draw breath and couldn't. His chest was locked tight. Where was the nearest oxygen-dispenser point? Somewhere nearby was a row of plastic cowls with masks attached to oxygen lines. For a few yen you could suck in several pure lungfuls to brace yourself against the city-center smog. But where? How near? Could he get there? A pounding steam engine started up inside his head and whined to a shrill crescendo, blocking out the sound of traffic and scurrying feet. The shimmering white blob swelled like a monstrous balloon, cutting off his vision completely. In the instant that he slithered down the granite wall to the pavement, Hanamura's last conscious thought was tinged with regret that he would never have the opportunity to tell the doctor he was wrong. For there was no pain. None at all. It was just like going to sleep in a blizzard next to a steam engine. A L The banks of lights dimmed one by one until the studio became a shadowy twilit cavern. From the angled window of the control gallery Chase looked down, fascinated. He'd caught the last few minutes of the production on the floor and it reminded him of a religious ritual, cameramen, technicians, and stage crew moving silently to commands from above, following a mysterious ceremony with its own inscrutable logic. "That wraps it up," said the director at the console behind him in the narrow booth. He spoke into the microphone. "Thank you, studio." Through the adjacent glass walls Chase could see people stirring and stretching. Jill beckoned to him and he followed her into the brightly lit, carpeted corridor. She was wearing a baggy, vivid pink T-shirt with UCLA across her loose breasts and tight, green cord trousers that showed off her rump. And in place of the ubiquitous training shoes, brown brogue shoes, he was surprised to see. "Have you told him I'm here?" Jill nodded as they went down the stairs. "He remembered you straight off." She gave him a sneaky sideways grin. "Told me you once tried to hoax him with a fake specimen and he nearly fell for it." Chase stopped dead on the bottom step and cringed. He'd completel forgotten about the spoof. Three of them had soaked some blue-green iii'de in a beaker of Guinness and taken it along to Sir Fred, with arefully arranged and rehearsed expressions of bafflement. Could he identify this mutant bloom? How come it had such a peculiar smell? The professor had carried out a series of tests with his usual thoroughness before catching on, and then issued a formal lab report with "Brown Ale Algae" under the species classification. The professor had had the last laugh too. He'd taken his revenge on the three culprits by setting them the long and laborious task of identifying the percentage carbon yields of the marine food chain, all the way from phytoplankton to third-stage carnivores. They didn't pull any more tricks. "You seem nervous." "Does it show?" "You don't hide your feelings too well, or don't bother to. Why were you so belligerent the other night?" "Was I?" He was quite genuinely surprised; he thought he'd been successful at the party in putting up a front of meek, mild-mannered marine biologist. Either he was a poor actor or Jill was particularly astute. He guessed it was the former. After bringing coffee she left them to chat in one of the small reception rooms used to entertain VIP guests. Chase had been wondering how to broach the subject (what the hell was the subject?), but his trepidation melted away in the warmth of Sir Frederick Cole's welcome. Chase remembered him as a sloppy dresser. Though today, wearing the suit Jill had mentioned, he was positively smart—even though the material was stiff, enclosing his chest in a kind of blue shell, and there was an excess of it in the sleeves and trouser legs. He had an untidy thatch of mousy-colored hair, graying at the temples, and lively brown oyes peering out from beneath bushy gray eyebrows. "njoy yourself in the Antarctic?" he asked in his flat Yorkshire V')K,I. when they'd shaken hands. "You know about that?" "Oh, I keep in touch. I saw your name mentioned in Geographica magazine, in a list of personnel at Halley Bay." Sir Fred's eyes twinkled. "And I could hardly forget one of the perpetrators of the Brown Ale incident. Nearly ruined my reputation." Chase grinned weakly. "Actually, sir, it was Guinness." "Was it? I never knew that. There you are, none of us can be right all the time." He began stuffing black twist tobacco into a meerschaum pipe. "What is it, career problem? Advice you want?" Chase went over it briefly, mentioning the Russian found on the ice, the scrawled chemical equation, his death at the McMurdo Station, all the while conscious that he was wasting Sir Fred's time. Here and now, in this comfortable lounge with its easy chairs and potted shrubbery, the whole thing seemed preposterous. He cursed himself for being so stupid. Then nearly forgot to add the bit about the Russian scientist who was to be one of the speakers at the conference in Geneva. Sir Fred didn't see the connection, and Chase went on to explain: "The Russian—that is, the man we found on the ice—kept repeating something that sounded like Stanovnik. We thought it was a word, or words, but it could have been a name. Maybe of the man who's going to be in Geneva. Have you heard of him?" "I've met him, two or three times. Boris Stanovnik. He's a microbiologist with the Hydro-Meteorological Service in Moscow. Good chap." Sir Fred sucked on his pipe and observed Chase through the billowing smoke. "Have you still got the paper with the equation on it?" Chase took the slip of paper from his diary and handed it over. After a minute's scrutiny Sir Fred raised his eyes and gave Chase a skeptical stare. "Is this another leg-pull?" he asked bluntly. "No—no, sir, really. This time it's genuine." "This is the formula for the dissolution of C02 in seawater." Chase nodded. "Why go to the trouble of writing it down? A perfectly ordinary chemical interaction? He couldn't speak a word of English, either, and yet he was able to use our chemical symbols." Sir Fred wafted smoke away. "That's not unusual. Many foreign scientists use them. No, the odd thing, as you say, is why bother in the first place? He must have been trying to tell you something." Sir Fred thoughtfully folded the paper and gave it back. "You didn't get to find out his name then?" "No. Perhaps the Americans did." "Didn't you ask them?" "It didn't occur to me," Chase confessed. "But he should never have been moved. They could have flown a medical team in—or even waited till he was stronger. I got the impression that Professor Banting was afraid of offending the Americans by refusing." "Professor Banting is afraid of offending his own shadow," Sir Fred commented dryly. Chase wondered whether Ivor Banting and Sir Fred Cole had ever rossed swords. It would have made for an interesting contest. Banting, an establishment drone down to his black woolen socks, versus Firebrand Fred, maverick of the British scientific cabal. It must have really peeved Banting when Fred Cole got his knighthood. All that toadying and nothing to show for it! "Can you make anything of it?" Chase said. Sir Fred rubbed the side of his nose with a stubby forefinger. "The last time I met Stanovnik—when would it be?—about two years ago— he was working on a climatic project. He wouldn't say what exactly, but that's the Russians for you." "I thought you said he was a microbiologist?" Chase frowned. "He was investigating the effects of pollutants and chemical runoff un the microorganisms in seawater. You're familiar with eutrophication, I take it?" Chase nodded. When a river or lake received an overabundance of nutrients—usually caused by the runoff of farm fertilizers with a high nitrogen content—it encouraged the growth of algae blooms, which as they decayed and died consumed all the oxygen in the water. Deprived of oxygen, other plants and animals also died, with the result that the water became biologically dead. That was the process of eutrophication; quite simply, overfertilization. It had the effect of speeding up the natural evolutionary cycle. Lake Erie in the United States and the land-locked Mediterranean were often-cited examples, where the natural organic processes had been accelerated by some two hundred years. "We had a long chat about it. His main interest was how eutrophication on a large scale might affect the climate. When a lake dies and becomes stagnant and eventually turns into swampland, it alters the local weather in the same way that clearing a forest can either increase or decrease rainfall. The Russians are keen to find out everything they can about what affects the climate because of their grandiose geoengineering schemes. They imagine they can move mountains in more than just the metaphorical sense." "That doesn't seem to have much connection with carbon dioxide and seawater," Chase pointed out. "No, not directly. Though it might have something to do with the climate. Indirectly." "You mean the greenhouse effect?" Chase said. "I'd already thought about that myself, but I don't see how." "If you like I'll mention this to Banting next time I see him," said Sir red, getting up. He seemed to inhabit the blue suit rather than wear it. The Americans could have confided in him." "Are you likely to see Professor Banting?" "We serve on half-a-dozen committees together." Sir Fred gave Chase a long-suffering look over his meerschaum. "Professor Banting and the committee might have been made for each other." Chase went ahead and held the door open. "If you're all that curious you could find out yourself," Sir Fred told him. "See Boris Stanovnik and ask him. He'll be in Geneva and he speaks good English." He chuckled, started to cough, and spat something into his handkerchief. "Better accent than mine," he wheezed. "Thank you for taking the time to see me, sir. I'll watch for your program. I'm glad we met again." They shook hands and Sir Fred wandered off down the maze of corridors, apparently knowing where he was bound. The thought in Chase's mind was not Boris Stanovnik or Geneva, but Angie. But after all, he reasoned, it was connected with his work. In a sort of roundabout way. And it would only be for a few days . . . Christ, and they'd been getting along so well. He had the car radio on, but wasn't really listening. It was a meaningless babble. Fragments caught and snagged at this mind. . . . you won't find a better deal this side of the Rockies . . . buy three and get the fourth free! . .. we're offering discounts on the discounts at J. C. Broughton's . . . looking for the little gift to please her? . . . ten-ninety-five and you get a chrome set for the price of ... Instead he tuned in to the thoughts inside his head People everywhere were dying of cancer, others were suffering from nerve and respiratory defects, from liver and kidney disorders, women were miscarrying, children being born with genetic damage. It was a neverending catalog of the dead and dying, victims of toxic waste and industrial pollution. The world was manifestly mad; to Brad Zittel it was perfectly clear. In fact it was screaming for attention, for action. The world was mad not only because these things were happening but because nothing was being done to prevent them from happening. Nobody cared. The planet was drowning in its own excrement and nobody gave a damn. . . . Take that car in front. He'd been unseeingly watching it pumping out poisonous fumes for the last ten minutes. What the hell did the driver care? The air was still clear and breathable, wasn't it? Nobody had actually dropped dead on the highway. Not yet. Without a moment's further consideration Brad pulled over and ran the small red Datsun onto the sloping grass shoulder. The traffic behind honked and swerved. Somebody shook a fist. Brad switched off the engine and slumped back in the seat, all the strength leaking from his fingertips. His head felt curiously tight and his temples throbbed. .. at the Temple of Divine Worship this coming Sunday . . . It was too big a mess for one man to sort out. And why should he bother? Let them sink in their own sewage. His stomach tightened in a spasm of virulent rage. It seemed to swell inside him like a growth until he felt that he must burst. Still the endless stream of cars and trucks blurred past, filling the air with a soft-blue haze. Brad got out and faced the oncoming surge. Oxygen-breathing mon?t>rs spewing out poison. Movable instruments of death, like the Nazi is ovens on wheels. He stumbled onto the concrete lip of the highway and began to walk toward them. This, it seemed to him, was the only logical thing to do. He felt very calm. Traffic streamed past on either side, incredulous faces and gaping mouths. He walked diagonally across the highway, angry and yet calm, impotent and yet defiant. A huge truck bore down, silver exhaust pipe burnished by the sun, the driver wrenching at the wheel and cutting across the path of a car, which braked sharply, setting up a cacophony of horns. Miraculously the traffic continued to flow all around him, a river of hurtling murderous metal, the warm breeze and pungent fumes wafting against his face and filling his nostrils. A long-haired motorcyclist went by, shouting something that was snatched away, and then a car with a trailer rocking crazily as the driver tried to avoid him. Brad walked on. The cars and trucks had malevolent eyes and snarling mouths. He could smell their stinking breath. Another sound insinuated itself above the steady roar, a thin high-pitched braying. He didn't see the patrol car, lights flashing, slue to a stop on swaying springs. Something yanked him and he was being carried and thrust facedown onto dimpled plastic that smelled strongly of stale sweat. A hand held the back of his neck in a choking grip and a longsuffering voice said, "Why the fuck can't you take an overdose like the rest of them and get it over with quietly?" Winthrop had expected skepticism from the other members of the subcommittee whose brief was to vet the agenda for the next monthly session of PSAC, when the president himself would be in attendance. He had expected incredulity from some of them, even scornful laugh'r -but not the open hostility he now faced. The attack had been led by Gen. George N. Wolfe of the Department of Defense, who wasted no time and little breath in calling the proposal alarmist and unscientific. Winthrop had actually flushed and only just stopped himself blurting out that the general should stick to military matters and leave others better qualified to decide what was "unscientific" and what wasn't. But this would have opened an old wound, he knew—the presence of a Defense Department spokesman on the President's Scientific Advisory Committee—and would have served no useful purpose. It wouldn't help his career any either. If word got back to the Pentagon that the deputy director of the World Oceanographic Data Center was an awkward son of a bitch . . . well, anyway, better to ease off a little and not get excited. He wanted to see his name on the director's door, not on a list of has-beens circulating Washington for the post of washroom attendant. "It amazes me, Winthrop, that you even considered putting this crackpot notion forward in the first place." General Wolfe hunched forward over the polished circular table, his tanned face a maze of cracks and lines that was the legacy of Southeast Asia. His eyes were like fissures in sandstone. "Jesus Christ, man, this is a governmentappointed body, not a goddamn college debating society. We're supposed to deal in hard scientific fact. Instead you come up with some ludicrous concoction dreamed up by a lunatic living on—" He turned his craggy head abruptly to his aide, a lieutenant with sharp features who murmured in his ear. General Wolfe swiveled back to bark at Winthrop, "Canton Island. Wherever the hell that is." Winthrop smoothed his silvery hair with long slender fingers. "General, I feel I ought to point out that Dr. Derick is an eminently respected scientist with an international reputation. His book Diatom Groth and Deveopment is accepted as the standard work on the subject. Anyone acquainted with marine biology knows of his contribution to—" General Wolfe snorted rudely. "Just because the guy's written some book or other doesn't make him a divine oracle." Esther Steinbekker, the chairwoman, cropped gray hair framing a sexless face, and with a slight squint behind black-frame spectacles, said crisply, "Many of us are familiar with Dr. Detrick's work, Parris. We know of his important contributions to the field. But really, on the basis of unsupported and unverified data you can't seriously expect us to include this item on the PSAC agenda." Everyone looked toward Wnthrop, who was at pains to define his position. The last thing he wanted was to be lumped with Theo in the cranks and screwballs category. "Of course I must agree that the research is, as yet, unsupported by others in the field—and I don't for one second accept all the conclusions that Detrick draws. But I do think we should at least consider Trevor rtoyle jj hat is after all the fruit of twenty years effort. If Detrick is conceivably right—" "Then I'm a Dutchman," General Wolf grated, getting a few chuckles and hidden smiles. Winthop eyed him stonily. This bastard was out to make him a laughingstock. He could feel perspiration prickling the back of his neck. Two seats along to his left, Professor Gene Lucas spoke up in his mild southern voice. Lucas, a small, slim man with a clipped gray moustache, was with the Geophysical Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton and was one of the country's leading experts in the study of the biosphere. "You say in your summary, Dr. Winthrop"—peering through bifocals at the stapled typewritten sheets before him—"that Detrick expcts the decline in phytoplankton production to have an effect, quote appreciable effect unquote, on the oxygen level within twenty years." He looked up, mouth tight and prim. "If that were the case, shouldn't we be able to register the start of such a trend right now? Those things don't happen overnight." Before Winthrop could respond, one of the other scientists, a particle physicist, directed a question at Lucas. "As we're not as wellacquainted with atmospheric dynamics as yourself, Professor Lucas, perhaps you could tell us how such a change would be detected and if in fact there has been any change?" "No, none at all," Lucas stated emphatically. "The most recent measurements indicate that the percentage of oxygen in the atmosphere has remained stable at 20.94 for the past sixty years; that's to say, since continuous reliable records were kept. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest either a rise or fall in oxygen content." He turned to regard Winthrop over his spectacles. "Furthermore, it has been calculated that if the entire fossil fuel reserves of this planet were to be burned, the combustion would reduce the oxygen to only 20.80 percent, an insignificant change, which would have nil effect on lifeforms, including man." Winthrop was beginning to regret that he'd raised the subject. Two of his senior staff had studied Theo's massive dossier of research and both agreed that its implications were serious enough to warrant a hearing before PSAC. As for Winthrop himself, he'd felt that this was the least he could do in the light of Theo's personal appeal. But if he'd known, even had an inkling, of the vehement reaction from the military, he would never have stuck his neck out. It was almost as if they had an ulterior motive. Yet what could be further rnrnoved from matters of national security than a globa threat? Beause, f course, any depletion in oxygen would threaten every nation me iaai uasp in the world—every single person in the world. So why the opposition, the almost violent antagonism? "To put this in perspective, as a kind of frame of reference," Professor Lucas went on in his gentle drawl, "we have to remember that the atmosphere weighs fifty-seven thousand trillion tons. Any anthropogenic effect would be negligible in comparision with the natural flux of gases on such a vast scale." "What's that in plain English?" demanded General Wolfe, fixing Lucas with his steely gaze. "I'm referring to any man-made interference in the ecological balance. Its effect would be infinitesimal." "Uh-huh," the general said dubiously, casting a sideways glance at his aide. "While I accept Professor Lucas's point about there being no apparent signs of oxygen deficiency at the present time," Winthrop said, addressing everyone around the table, "it's worth pointing out that changes in the atmosphere can and do happen, and quite quickly at that. There's been a significant increase in carbon dioxide over the past hundred years, for example—" "Which has been noted and measured," Lucas stated quietly. "Yes, true." Winthrop moistened his lips and plunged on, conscious that all eyes were upon him. "But—surely—what ought to concern us is the speed, the—uh—suddenness of that increase. If it can happen with carbon dioxide, why not with oxygen? Couldn't Dr. Detrick's work point to the first signs, be the first hint, so to speak, of a possible decline in the oxygen level?" There was a thin note of pleading in his voice that made him feel ill. Just what was he trying to do? Convince them that Theo's research was valid or that Parris Winthrop was far too clever to be taken in by a bogus scientist? "Well, for one, I don't accept Detrick's hypothesis," said an elderly white-haired man opposite. "He might know all there is to know about marine biology, but his grasp of atmospheric physics is highly suspect, it seems to me." There were nods and grunts on all sides. The back of Winthrop's neck felt cold and clammy. He saw that the general's aide was watching him with hawklike intensity, the faintest glimmer of a smile pasted on his thin lips. Was it triumph? Smug satisfaction? What was going on here, some kind of subversive political ploy to have him removed from PSAC? If that happened his chances of making director were zilch. "We seem to have arrived at a consensus," said Esther Steinbekker, with what sounded in Winthrop's ears to have a ring of finality about it. "As chairwoman I can't recommend that this committee include the item on the agenda for the next presidential meeting. Need we take a vote?" 1tVUl -" She looked from face to face, her squint behind the heavy black frames coming to rest on Winthrop. The room went quiet. Any committee member had the right to insist on a vote. Winthrop stared down at his manicured hands and white cuffs resting on either side of the neatly stacked files on the leatherbound blotter. He swallowed carefully, making sure that the movement in his throat went unnoticed. A vote would be recorded in the minutes, become part of the official archives of PSAC. It could be referred to in the future, checked up on by anyone who wanted to dish dirt. However, no vote, no record. He took care not to move a muscle. When the meeting was over, Lt. Lloyd Madden gathered the documntation together, locked it inside his briefcase, and stood by the door while the general made his farewells. A few minutes later the two of them were striding along the corridor, across the marble reception hall, and out through the glass doors and down the broad shallow steps of the NOAA Building. A breeze, quite cool for this time of year, stirred the branches of the maple trees along Virginia Avenue as General Wolfe and his aide ducked inside the black limousine with the triangular Defense Department pennant on its nearside wing. The car had been called for 11:25. It was now 11:28. They were only three minutes adrift, Madden was pleased to note, which considering the useful morning's work was a trifling discrepancy, despite the general's fetish for living his life to a gridiron timetable. As they passed the State Department and headed for Constitution Avenue, General Wolfe clasped his hands together and stared out through the tinted windows while he puffed away at a fat Amorvana Regios. Madden didn't break the silence, knowing how the general liked to savor his personal triumphs. "Children," remarked the general eventually through the swirling cigar smoke. "Fucking kids, the lot of them. And Jesus Christ, some say we should leave the decisions to the scientists. Where would we be, Lloyd?" "I thought you handled the situation with consummate skill, sir." Was that too fulsome? No, not with Blindeye, Madden decided. Gen. George Nelson Wolfe hadn't acquired the nickname only because of his middle name. His ego was armor-plated. You could pour crap until he was up to his knees in diarrhea and he'd breathe it in like Chanel. "What you might call a preemptive strike," General Wolfe chuckled. H started to choke and removed the cigar. "Want to know something, Ilvd?" Coughing hard. "If there's one thing I detest more than a sl icntist, it's a fucking deskbound scientist. Neither fish nor fowl." He caught his breath. "They try to play at politics and they don't have the least idea. Fucking children." "Incidentally, General, have you seen the latest budget estimates from JEG Chemicals? They're now talking of ninety-seven million to develop new strains in the symmetrical triazines group. That's on top of the one hundred and fourteen million for chloraphenoxy acid compounds. I think we ought to give that some prime time." The general was dismissive. "Money is the least of our worries. If that's what it takes, that's what we pay." He frowned across at Madden, the cigar jutting out of his face like a post sticking out of parched red earth. "I still get confused with those two. Which is Macy's and which is Bloomingdale's?" "Symmetrical triazines is Macy's, chloraphenoxy acid is Bloomingdale's. I didn't actually mean that, sir. My concern isn't about how much it's costing, but that the amounts are large enough to start attracting attention from the State Department. Till now we've managed to lose them under contingency funding categories, but together they're nudging the quarter billion and sooner or later someone is going to want a breakdown." He smiled mirthlessly. "Rather a lot to spend on keeping the Pentagon lawns and flower beds free from weeds." "You're right, Lloyd," General Wolfe brooded. "As usual, you're right. We'll have to do something about it." Not that Blindeye had the faintest notion what to do about it. He would do nothing, wait for Madden to come up with a plan, mull it over for a couple of days, then issue the instruction verbally. Blindeye wouldn't commit himself to anything, least of all incriminating paper work in triplicate. "Know what still bugs me?" the general said, scattering flaky ash over the cushioned armrest that separated them. "Astakhov. If only that bastard had talked we'd have a pretty good idea what the Soviets are up to in Antarctica." "We did our best, sir, but he was in bad shape. Interrogating somebody with a broken spine isn't easy." Madden shrugged his narrow shoulders in the tailored tan uniform. "What do you threaten him with?" "I'm not blaming you, Lloyd." You'd better not, Madden thought viciously. The meaty hand holding the cigar patted his arm and Madden almost flinched with revulsion, but held himself tense, "I'm confident you did all you could to extract the information," General Wolfe assured him, scattering more ash. "You win some, you lose some. We happened to lose Astakhov. Pity." Madden surreptitiously brushed ash from his sleeve while pretending to examine his thin hands with the polished square-cut nails. "I wish we could lose Detrick the same way," he said softly. IIK1 y "" "Detrick?" The general turned to gaze at him, his eyes screwed up tight. "That crackpot? Who's going to listen to him now? Who, for Christ's sake?" "I don't know General, but somebody might. It's an added risk, and one we don't have to take. Winthrop was right about Detrick having an international reputation. All right, so we've choked off Winthrop—you made certain of that, sir—but there might be others who are prepared to listen." Madden looked into the general's eyes. "And he's close to the mark. Too close for comfort." General Wolfe nodded slowly. "In that case we'd better do something about it." "Will you need both suitcases?" Nina Stanovnik called to her husband. "Or just the large one?" She stood in front of the open doors of the massive oak wardrobe, hands on hips, head cocked for his reply. She knew he didn't like to be encumbered with too much luggage, especially on a long trip, but left to his own devices her shambling bear of a husband would have gone off without even a change of underwear. "The small one. Just the small one," he said, appearing in the doorway. Despite his graying hair, cropped close to the scalp, Boris Vladimir Stanovnik might reasonably have passed for someone in his late forties if it hadn't been for the purple pouches underneath his eyes. His voice was deep and resonant, his manner gentle and withdrawn. He raised his eyebrows and smiled, seeking her assent. "I'll do the packing," Nina announced firmly, tapping her shapeless bosom beneath the floral print dress. She manhandled the larger of the two suitcases onto the bed, lid yawning wide. "You can't possibly wear the same suit and shirt all week, for goodness sake," she chided him in a long-suffering voice, which both knew was part of the game. Thirty years of marriage had hardened habit into familiar, comfortable ritual. "Socks," she muttered to herself, going to the chest of drawers near the window. Boris watched her fondly for a moment and then returned to the living room, his face creased in a smile. A clutter of papers, files, books, magazines, and clippings lay on the inlaid leather surface of the open bureau. The smile faded. How much ought he to take with him to Geneva? Hardly the appropriate question • •. how much would he be aowed to take, apart from the paper he was to deliver at the conference? In any case, all the latest stuff was locked x n 1CI1 jn away in the safe of the Hydro-Meterological Service, so none of this could be regarded as sensitive material. Bt Boris was too old a hand to antagonize the authorities over even the smallest detail. Unless scientific material had already been published in official journals—and thus available to the West—there was an absolute embargo on working notes and calculations of any description leaving the country. This sometimes led to the ludicrous situation of not being allowed to take out material that could be found in the pages of American and European science journals on thousands of newsstands. Boris picked up a buff-colored document and held it to the pale light that filtered in through the window. He searched for his glasses, feeling the arthritic pain in his right shoulder. Moscow was cold and damp and dismal at this time of year and he cursed the apartment's feeble, antiquated heating system, which even at full blast was unable to take the chill from his bones. "Sweaters," floated his wife's voice from the bedroom. "You'll need sweaters in Switzerland, I should think. They have snow there all the year round." "Leave out the English woolen one. I'll wear it on the journey." He found his glasses, but the light wasn't good enough to read by, so he switched on the tasseled desk lamp. The document was an internal memorandum, addressed to HEAD OF SECTION, which was a joke, Boris thought wryly, because ever since Peter Astakhov's disappearance his "section" had consisted of himself, Malankov, and two young lab assistants. Peter had been a good man too, which was more than could be said for Malankov, whom he detested. A party weasel, not the slightest doubt. Slovenly in his work and always poking his pockmarked nose where it didn't belong. Surely no coincidence that Malankov had been assigned to his section about the time that Peter Astakhov had disappeared. But what on earth did the authorities hope to discover? Did they suspect that he'd defected and would try to contact Boris secretly? Or that Boris knew something already? If so, they were in for a vast disappointment, for the one question Boris continued to ask himself, all these months later, was what exactly had happened at Mirnyy Station? Peter had been engaged on climatic field research, graded Red A, which was top secret, and Boris knew for a fact that the KGB were keeping a vigilant eye on the project for fear that the Americans might find out what was going on. Yet Peter had vanished without trace somewhere in the wastes of Antarctica. Was he dead, or had he really defected? And if the KGB didn't know, how in high heaven did they expect him to provide the answer? "Slippers," said his wife from the doorway, making him blink. "Shall I pack your slippers?" I revui nuyic Boris shook his head. "No!" He gave her a pained look. "Nina, dear, I can't wear slippers to the conference. It isn't a rest home for retired scientists." She shrugged, gestured to heaven, and went back into the bedroom. Boris realized he was still holding the memorandum and ran his eye over it. SUBJECT: PROJECT ARROW, which in plain language meant the Yenisei and Ob rivers diversion scheme. Boris was weary of the endless discussion, as well as having serious doubts about it. Diverting these two rivers, which at present poured 85,000 cubic meters of fresh water every second into the Arctic Ocean, would bring about a significant change in the salinity of the seawater, possibly leading to the gradual melting of the polar ice. Once started, a positive feedback would begin to operate and the process would accelerate until in ten or fifteen years time . . . Who could say? Conceivably a catastrophe of global proportions— not that the authorities seemed concerned one way or the other. Besides, this was a political, not a scientific, decision. The party chose only to listen to those who raised no objection to the scheme, and not being one of them, Boris Stanovnik found himself out of favor, his section whittled down to next to nothing, and his work spied on by a little sewer rat with bad breath who bit his nails. When Nina had finished packing she prepared a meal, which they ate in the living room, this being the warmest place. "Will Theo Detrick be there?" she asked him as they were finishing off their meal with syrniki—little fried cheesecakes—and drinking their tea. "I've no idea," Boris replied. "It must be five years since I heard from him. He was in the Pacific at the time, still working on his precious diatoms." "Such a pity you lost touch," Nina said sadly. "We could have visited him again; those six months in America were wonderful." "Things have changed in fifteen years," Boris said grimly. "Well, of course, dear ..." "I meant here." "Oh," Nina said quietly. "Yes." In those days, Boris reflected, he had been permitted to take his wife with him. Today he was allowed out of the country only if Nina stayed behind. In that sense he was fortunate: Scientists without close family ties never got the chance to travel abroad because the risk of defection was considered too great. No doubt Malankov, he thought sardonically, had kept his masters tuly informed as to Boris Stanovnik's political loyalty and the extent to which he could be trusted. Not that he had ever seriously considered (ecting. America was a marvelous place to visit but he wouldn't