There are times when the cure is worse than the disease. But when the cure triggers other diseases ...

 

R. A. BEAUMONT

 

 

Central Intelligence Agency Docu­ment 997-AH 30 March 1977

Translation of: Warsaw Pact Train­ing Memorandum #347-9 dtd 21 March 1977 (obtained 25 March 1977). Agency Classification: Routine

Statute Classification: Secret. Transl - 273 Approved: 994

Training Memorandum #347-9

From: Chief, Training Branch

To: Commanding Officers

Submarine Units

Warsaw Pact Baltic Littoral Naval Command

To further the proficiency of electronic warfare specialists and officers in submarine courses, a quarterly training cruise will be conducted aboard a submarine equipped with multiple console stations and the most up-to-date tech­nical education devices. In these cruise experiences, personnel will gain actual experience of sensing torpedo running sounds, detona­tion, surface vessel engine sounds and other signature phenomena as well as attack simulation from anti­submarine forces. These experi­ences will be supplemented by commentary and guidance by expe­rienced officers and ratings, thus providing more realistic and effi­cient collectivized training.

Commanders will adhere to quota allocation regulations Z-4 in forwarding applications. Initial sus­pense date is 14 April 1977 for May maneuver exercises ...

 

From: National Security Agency

To: Off Naval Intell; CIA; DIA

EXTRACT ROUTINE RT MSG, TAPE 88967-243; 2100 5 May 1977:

Soviet Submarine (exact SN un­known) to Warsaw Pact GHQ, Na­val Div: ". . . final drops of vari­ous NATO types contact-detonation depth charges made at 56 12' N/ 20 29' E at 1300. Final drop of live charges detonated on bottom with extreme volume and continuing secondary reverberation and turbu­lence. Will return Stettin directly w/ tapes for analysis."

 

Flash Message—Top Secret‑0700050777

From: CINCNORLANT to CNO

Danish and West German Naval Commands have asked this HQ for assistance in determining cause of loss of Danish trawler personnel at 56 N 20 W approx 1700 6 May. Six trawlers with crews dead and/or unconscious and paint peeling drifting in that area. Two West German seaplanes landed in area still down on water and not re­sponding to radio queries. Sea state regionally deteriorating with high turbulence and fog. Toxicity of un­known nature and source consti­tutes high risk to search and rescue personnel. Awaiting submarine monitoring and other reports from German oceanographic lab in Hamburg. May need further scien­tific resource backup. Will advise further developments in voice communication with you 0600 USEST.

 

From the New York Times noon teleprint edition, May 7th, 1977, page 3:

“…The Soviet and Swedish ambassadors appeared at the White House at 10:45 this morning, cut­ting across the otherwise lighthearted atmosphere surrounding the scheduled christening of the President's grandson. Although they arrived in their individual cars, they spoke briefly and entered to­gether, smiling thinly at the press's queries. It is believed by informed sources that they spoke to the Pres­ident regarding the NATO alert in the Baltic Sea. When they left at 11:00, both men, still pale and un­communicative, rode in the Soviet ambassador's car . . ."

 

From the internationally syndi­cated column "Deborah's Diary: Social Notes on the Washington Scene" for May 7, 1977 (courtesy Imperial Fea­tures, Inc.):

“. . . The landing of the sleek Royal Air Force Harrier II on the White House helicopter pad this af­ternoon had those gathered for the christening gawking. The nose and wings were steamy in the drizzle from what must have been a very fast flight. I waved to the pilot, who was all business for a change. He was none other than Wing Commander David Evans-Thomas, currently linked by those-in-the­-know in London with a certain lady of veddy-blue blood. Davey's passenger (male, I presume) was surrounded by Marines on his way into the White House. All very dra­matic. I wonder who's bought the film rights."

 

Presidential Briefing 9977: Pro­fessor Lars Olsson, Lund University, beginning 11:30 AM May 7 1977: (also present: Secretaries of State and De­fense; Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and aides noted in Register, p. 103, and Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff.)

OLSSON: To get to the point straightaway, Mr. President, all of my colleagues, in London, Ham­burg, Stockholm, Copenhagen and in this country, concur that we have a grave problem. A toxic substance is diffusing rapidly from a point in the Baltic, just about half­way from Sweden to Poland, here. (Professor Olsson pointed to map).

PRES: Is it true that the Germans lost some of their submarine people just from going on deck? What is this stuff, anyway?

OLSSON: It is true, your ex­cellency. It seems very likely that what has happened here is that some containers of poisonous materials cased in concrete in the late 1920's, 1927 to be exact, have bro­ken open.

PRES: What kind of poisonous material? Who the hell put them out there?

OLSSON: The material is the by-product of a safety match manufac­tured in that period. I am sorry to say that it was done by a firm in our country. I have some data here. If you are interested in the chem­istry ...

PRES: No, thank you, Professor. What we'd all like to know, I'm sure, is just how bad this stuff is.

OLSSON: It kills everything. Fish, plants, and even in the air over the point at which it's being released. A large number of sea birds are floating about out there now.

PRES: It's moving pretty fast then?

OLSSON: Yes, your excellency. We can't understand that.

SEC OF DEF: What's so unusual, Professor?

OLSSON: If the concrete casing ruptured through decay, then one of them—there were several, you see—should have started leaking slowly. But there's a much larger reaction involved than we would have expected.

PRES: Well, gentlemen, the ques­tion obviously comes down to what we can do about this. I can tell you to start with that the Soviets—and your government, Professor—are not happy.

OLSSON: They will be much less happy, sir, when the full dimen­sions of the problem are known.

PRES: What would you recom­mend on the basis of what you know now?

OLSSON: I would order the popu­lation of Europe within a half-mile of the Baltic and the North Sea to move inland immediately.

PRES: Good Lord, man, is it that serious?

OLSSON: At the very least. Mr. President, if I could use your scien­tific resources, and build some computer models, I could tell you more accurately what we are talk­ing about.

CHM JCS: Mr. President, we've got a direct SSB teletype hookup standing by with all his people on site patched in to our special project computers at NORAD.

PRES: You need my approval?

CHM JCS: Yes, sir. We can't link in uncleared personnel ...

PRES: Dave, give the general a written authorization, right now. Professor Olsson, how long will your work take?

OLSSON: About two hours. Per­haps three.

PRES: All right, gentlemen. Let's get back in here at, say, two-thirty.
(End: 11:40 AM May 7 1977)

 

Resumption briefing: Olsson to Pres. Speaker of House and Senate Majority Leaders also present. Beginning 2:30 PM.

OLSSON: I would like to explain how we reached our current con­clusions. We used your computer to build a variety of models, to ana­lyze aspects of the problem and then look for the best, the worst and the most normal models. I am sorry to say that there seems to be little variation among these three.

PRES: Well, what does it come out to?

OLSSON: Your excellency?

SEC OF STATE: What does it mean?

OLSSON: Of course, excuse me. Well, this substance is diffusing rapidly, in highly toxic concentra­tions. To be brief, the oceans of the world are threatened.

PRES: What can we do to stop it? What do you need?

OLSSON: We have given that some thought. Sinking ships full of hydraulic concrete on the site, even if we had them, would perhaps fail to do anything more than slow the rate of diffusion. The visibility's gone due to the bottom muck being so churned up. We'd have to develop safety clothing. The only bright spot in all of this is that the toxicity in the air is going down as the violent bubbling subsides.

PRES: What if it just goes on and on? That's what you're saying any­way, isn't it? That we can't do any­thing?

OLSSON: If it goes on and on, in a month, perhaps more, perhaps less, the oceans will be wet deserts.

SEN MAJ LDR: Just like a great big Lake Erie.

OLSSON: Excuse me, sir, no, not at all. Lake Erie has too much life. The most significant side-effect will be the death of oxygen-producing micro-organisms. I would like to extend my recommendations for evacuation, gentlemen, of high-alti­tude cities and countries. The Tibe­tans and Peruvians will be the first, perhaps, to feel the impact.

SEC OF STATE: Look, can't we dam up the Baltic?

OLSSON: To assemble and coordi­nate the equipment would take months, if not years. And we aren't sure what it would mean in terms of evaporation and diffusion into the water cycle.

DIR CIA: Mr. President, gen­tlemen, I have some slides which may give us all a better feel for the dimensions of this thing. (Slides 756-67 shown.)

SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: It looks like a big Alka-Seltzer fizzing away out there.

OLSSON: The turbulence is caused by the reaction of the substance with sea water.

PRES: Pictures are fine, but the problem's obviously got to be met fast, with realistic, practical meth­ods. Professor, we appreciate the theoretical problems, and are grate­ful for your translation. Don't you see anything we can do?

OLSSON: My colleagues are al­most in agreement that there is only one course. As Dr. Willistings in London put it, we may have to trade a holocaust for a nightmare.

PRES: What does that mean?

OLSSON: The use of thermonu­clear devices to neutralize the source through complete vaporiza­tion.

PRES: Use the bomb? Are you kidding?

SEC OF STATE: I think what the President is trying to suggest, Pro­fessor, is that in any event the proximity of this area to dense population centers ...

PRES: Hell, Dave. What I mean is that if you blow off one of those things that close to the Russians, we'll have instant World War III.

OLSSON: That seems quite likely, I am sure. I would like to ask the Secretary of Defense what his grimmest estimates of deaths immediate and deferred from a full thermonuclear war between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. are.

SEC DEF: The worst? I think, about three hundred million. That's only a ballpark figure. General?

CHM JCS: 387 rings a bell. I'll check that out.

OLSSON: Gentlemen, I would like to suggest that if you wish to dupli­cate our study that it will merely reinforce our findings.

SEN MAJ LDR: Let me ask a ques­tion, Professor. How many bombs would be needed? And how big?

OLSSON: I'm afraid you would have to err on the side of overkill, as you call it. You see, the location is masked in mud and the byprod­ucts of reaction. Unless the mate­rial is completely destroyed, it might be merely scattered, and the rate of release accelerated. It might take, perhaps, four fifty-megaton devices exploded simultaneously around the site. General?

CHM JCS: Would the fireball have to actually encompass this material?

OLSSON: Oh, yes.

CHM JCS: Then I'd say three or four.

SEC OF STATE: Gentlemen, do you really think the Soviets will stand by while we devastate the Baltic—with them in the fallout zone.

CHM JCS: Well, sir, the bombs would be fairly clean.

SEC OF STATE: Wouldn't there be a tidal wave?

PRES: What's the alternative, Pro­fessor?

OLSSON: Extinction of most, if not all, of the oxygen-breathing life on the planet, within perhaps six months. In a week, the Baltic, North Sea, English Channel, at least will be gone.

NAT SCI ADVISER: Mr. President, we've done our own work on this. What you've got, I'm afraid, is a grim trade-off.

PRES: Or a minimax, as my sys­tems people love to say. Give a little, take a little.

NAT SCI ADVISER: Except that in this case we're talking about ran­soming the planet with a nuclear bloodbath.

OLSSON: Perhaps you could dis­cuss this with the Russians.

SEC DEF: When Leningrad's un­der water and the RADIAC meters in Moscow start breaking their nee­dles, they'll find it a little tough to grin and bear it. I don't think I'd just sit and take it. They might think it's a trick. Or a mistake.

SEC OF STATE: We could refuse to retaliate.

PRES: Explain that a little, will you, George?

SEC OF STATE: Even if the Soviets launch a full nuclear assault after we neutralize this poison source, we could just refuse to retaliate. That would cut the total number of casualties.

CHM JCS: Oh, that's a record, even for State. The ultimate bleed­ing-heart sacrifice. Make the world safe for Communism.

SEC DEF: I don't think there's any point in this sort of thing. From what Professor Olsson says, we can't indulge ourselves in the lux­ury of hurling insults.

(End of briefing at 2:55 PM upon activation of Hotline Message Network. Transcript of ensuing message and reply (HLET 07051977-4 CLASSIFIED: Special Executive Access Only.)

 

AUTOPSY REPORT

Date and Hour Died: 7 May 1977 1530 (EDT)

Date and Hour Performed: 7 May 1977 1900 (EDT)

Prosector: (947632) Cdr. N. R. Vos­berg, MC, USN; (985113) Assis­tant; Lt. Cmdr. L. N. Wilkinson, MC, USNR; (38635414) Maj. D. F. Pinckney, MC, USA

Clinical Diagnosis: Ht-70 inches; Wt-182 pounds; Eyes—brown; Hair—brown/gray

Pathological Diagnosis: CAUSE OF DEATH: Coronary thrombosis

Approved: /s/ N. L. Hastings, Col., MC, USA

Military Organization: President of the United States

 

EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 1

May 7, 1977

Whereas immediately upon in­auguration the President of the United States has been informed by the National Science Adviser that the survival of the human race is directly and imminently threat­ened by the diffusion of a toxic substance from a source in the Bal­tic Sea; and whereas the party leaders of the Senate and the House of Representatives and the members of the Cabinet and National Security Council have con­curred in their review of the evi­dence presented from scientific sources that the only course of ac­tion is the immediate multiple use of high-yield thermonuclear devices in the area of the origin of the toxic substance; the President of the United States herewith orders the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to employ the military re­sources of the United States in remedy of this crisis; and further in view of the communicated threat of the Soviet government in dis­cussions over this issue to use ther­monuclear weapons should any be detonated in the Baltic, the Chair­man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is empowered to order a peremptory attack collateral with the operation in the Baltic.

The President expresses profound sorrow and regret that the alterna­tives have been reduced to such grave choices and recognizes the validity of arguments and long­standing concern over the use of the Baltic as a repository for indus­trial waste on the part of the U.S.S.R., but the United States is constrained to weigh the world's in­terests above all and is convinced that history will recognize the wis­dom of this decision ...

 

PRES US TO CG SAC ABN CP: EXTEND MY THANKS TO SURVIVING SAC CREWS STOP MEDAL OF HONOR AUTHORIZED FOR ALL MISSING GROUP CO'S PLUS OTHERS YOU RECOMMEND STOP ALL MILITARY PERSONNEL NOT OTHERWISE OCCUPIED NOW TO AS­SIST IN DISASTER RELIEF IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NUCLEAR ATTACK IN UNITED STATES STOP

 

ALL BOMBERS FIT FOR SERVICE TO AID NAVY IN OPERATIONS AGAINST OIL SPILLED FROM ANCHORAGE TANK FARM AND NORTH SLOPE PIPE­LINE RUPTURED BY NUCLEAR AT­TACK STOP EXPLAIN TO CREWS HOW VITAL WE NOW HALT SPILL IN NORTH PACIFIC TO PROTECT OXY­GEN BALANCE AND OCEANIC FOOD CHAIN STOP

 

NUCLEAR WEAPON USE AUTHORIZED AGAINST SUPERTANKERS DAMAGED BY TIDAL WAVE OFF COAST OF ALASKA SEVENTY-FIVE MILES SOUTH­WEST OF ANCHORAGE IMMEDIATELY STOP . . .